To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:
Unfortunately, last Friday, apart from a signal to sell the pound from the resistance level of 1.3315, which I examined in more detail in the afternoon review, it was not possible to form new signals to enter the market on the final trading day of the week. The bears just barely made it to support at 1.3165, from which I recommended opening long positions immediately on a rebound, and a quick breakout of support at 1.3243 also prevented a good entry point to sell the pound. At the moment, the bulls will continue to protect the new support at 1.3178, however, I recommend opening long positions from it only after a false breakout forms there with the update of last Friday's low. In this case, it will be possible to count on returning the pair to the resistance of 1.3250. However, an equally important task for buyers is to break through and settle above the 1.3250 level, which will cause the pair to sharply rise towards the high of 1.3315, which is where I recommend taking profits. In the absence of activity in the support area of 1.3178, I recommend buying GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the low of 1.3115, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:
The bears need to urgently break through the area below the 1.3178 level and consolidate there, since this will be the only way to keep the downward trend and cause the pair to fall towards the low of 1.3115. The 1.3063 area will be the long term goal, which is where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows to the resistance area of 1.3250 in the first half of the day, forming a false breakout there will be a signal to open short positions in the pound. If there is no activity in the resistance area of 1.3150, it is best to postpone short positions until the high at 1.3315 has been updated and sell the pound there immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day. Testing this resistance will indicate the end of the downward trend and a rather high probability of the pair hovering in the side channel of 1.3178-1.3315.
Indicator signals:
Moving averages
Trading is carried out just below the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued pressure on the British pound.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.
Bollinger Bands
A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.3195 area will lead to selling the pound in the long term. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the 1.3290 area.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
