In global terms, the wave marking of the EUR/USD instrument looks quite convincing. The departure of quotes from the reached highs confirms the assumption that the construction of wave 3 or C is complete. Meanwhile, wave 4 (assumed) takes on a three-wave form, at least it now clearly traces waves 1 and 2 or a and b. Thus, a new decline in quotes may begin in the near future. The US currency, at the same time, really needs the support of the news background. Thus, wave 4 may turn out to be quite short, and the entire upward section of the trend, which originated in March, may take a 5-wave form.
A smaller-scale wave marking shows that the expected wave 1 or a as part of wave 4 or the first of the new downward trend section has already completed its construction. Thus, the construction of wave 2 or b is currently underway, which may be completed in the near future. However, under certain conditions, especially if the news background is extremely unfavorable for the dollar, wave 4 may turn out to be very shortened, and the entire upward trend section may acquire a 5 – wave appearance. So far, I'm still inclined to build a wave with c at 4.
Due to the reason that there was not a lot of news reported on Monday, September 14, I can only pay attention to the report on industrial production in the European Union, which turned out to be slightly better than the markets expected. The Euro added about 30 basis points by the end of the previous day, and this morning it added another 30. Therefore, the demand for the European currency is growing again even though the news background is quite neutral at this time. For example, there has been no news from the European Union in recent days. In America, everything is outrageously stable. The country is preparing for presidential elections and that says it all. In many countries, all other topics become secondary a few months before the election of the head of government. We see the same thing now in America. Every day, Donald Trump and Joe Biden speak to the public and voice the reasons why they should be elected President in 2020. I am not fond of dwelling on the mutual accusations and insults of these two candidates. I believe that economic news and data should be better taken into account by the markets, and politics should remain politics. However, in 2020, markets were forced to take into account not only economic factors, but also political, epidemiological, and a number of others. In general, I believe that it is the wave pattern that we need to pay attention to now. For a month and a half, demand for the US currency has not increased. Perhaps we will see the construction of wave c at 4, and then resume the rise of the quotes tool, because, frankly, it's hard to imagine now what would happen if the US currency began to be in demand, which will allow you to build a downward trend.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The Euro-Dollar pair presumably completed the construction of the global wave 3 or C and the second corrective wave as part of the trend section that begins on September 1. Thus, at this time, I recommend selling the instrument with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.1706 and 1.1520, which corresponds to 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal down. I expect to build a descending wave from at 4. The Potential of this wave is 150 points.
