Ongoing talks on a law to protect the UK internal market provided significant support to the pound. Although discussions and agreements on various provisions of the bill are still ongoing, all sorts of details are becoming known. The reason for optimism was because Prime Minister Boris Johnson agreed to a veto for the House of Commons on the introduction of certain restrictive measures. The original version of the law provided that the ministries themselves, at their discretion, can impose restrictions on the movement of goods between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Now they will have to coordinate such actions with the House of Commons. This is a serious constraint that will clearly reduce the radicality of the bill itself. Although this still does not suit the European Union, which is annoyed by the very fact that such a law might be passed. Nevertheless, there is reason for optimism. However, this only temporarily contributed to the strengthening of the pound. Closer to the close of trading, the British currency went down amid Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech.
The results of the Fed meeting caused the dollar to sharply strengthen. The point is that the Fed, in a rather veiled form, announced the possibility of raising interest rates as early as next year. Powell said that interest rates will remain at current levels until inflation approaches 2.0% and unemployment approaches 5.0%. So, inflation is growing, and the unemployment rate is decreasing. In addition, the Fed has significantly improved its economic forecasts. Therefore, based on all this, we can conclude that as early as next year, the Fed will consider the possibility of raising interest rates. In addition, the US central bank did not say anything about the possibility of lowering interest rates or expanding measures to stimulate the economy. Most importantly, this sharply contrasts the statements and actions of the European Central Bank, which, in fact, is only expanding its stimulus measures.
It is clear that today everyone is waiting for new information on the progress of negotiations on the UK Internal Market Bill. The MPs are determined to seriously correct the most controversial aspects of Johnson's legislative initiative. And this will inevitably cause the pound to increase. But at the same time, one should not ignore the Bank of England meeting. Although all the parameters of monetary policy will remain unchanged against the backdrop of obvious problems in the economy, as well as uncertainty about Brexit, The BoE may well say that it does not rule out the possibility of further easing of monetary policy. This is especially due to Brexit. The likelihood of an unregulated Brexit has risen sharply, and such a development will lead to disastrous consequences for the British economy. So the BoE's rhetoric will be extremely cautious, with a clear hint of the possibility of lowering interest rates. And this will cause the pound to weaken. Therefore, only MPs can support the pound.
The GBPUSD pair, following the trajectory of the correction, reached the psychological value of 1.3000 from the support level of 1.2770, where a slowdown occurred on a natural basis and, as a result, a rebound in the opposite direction.
Based on the quote's current location, you can see that it returned to the deviation range of 1.2885 (1.2825/1.2925), where the accumulation process took place recently.
High rates are recorded in relation to the general volatility, which indicates a strong influence of speculators on the market.
Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see the inertial downward movement from September 1, which is where the quote is now located.
We can assume that the quote will temporarily focus on 1.2885/1.3000, where, depending on the price taking points, the subsequent movement from market scenarios will be clear: restoring the initial upward trend or resumption of the inertial move on September 1.
From the point of view of a complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods signal a sell position due to the price rebounding from 1.3000, as well as the inertial move on September 1.