At first, everything went as planned, and the pound rapidly fell immediately after the Bank of England meeting. This is not surprising, since the British central bank stated in plain text that if Brexit goes without a deal, then it will be necessary to consider the possibility of reducing the refinancing rate to negative values. To be honest, this completely coincides with the worst expectations. So the BoE looks to the future without much optimism. However, after just a few hours, the pound also rapidly went up, having completely won back all its losses. Help came from where no one expected. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said she was confident in the possibility of concluding a full-fledged trade deal between Brussels and London. In addition, despite the ongoing saga with the UK Internal Market Bill, the next round of negotiations will begin next week. In general, the purely informational background around Brexit greatly encouraged the pound. Although this growth itself is extremely emotional and not supported by anything specific.
At the same time, market participants were so inspired by such statements that they did not pay attention to US data at all. And it wasn't just better than forecasts. The data on claims for unemployment benefits showed that the likelihood that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will tighten next year clearly isn't zero. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell from 893,000 to 860,000. But the most interesting thing was the repeated applications, which fell from 13,544,000 to 12,628,000. And this despite the fact that a slight increase in the total number of applications was expected ... The figure has decreased by nearly a million.
Repetitive Unemployment Insurance Claims (United States):
Data on retail sales in the UK is already out, and its growth rate accelerated from 1.4% to 2.8%. But the market ignored this data. Frankly speaking, the pound is only concerned with Brexit and the further course of negotiations both on a trade deal and the UK Internal Market Bill. All other news is practically irrelevant. We do not expect anything more until the end of the day. So only all sorts of rumors and statements on the most important issue can move the pound from its place.
Retail Sales (UK):
The GBPUSD pair is moving within the psychological level of 1.3000, where a slowdown occurs on a natural basis as a result of a price rebound. Market participants interacting with the 1.3000 price coordinate happened in the course of a corrective move from the support level of 1.2770.
Based on the quote's current location, we can see that there is a variable range from 50 to 80 points along the psychological level.
High rates are recorded in relation to the general volatility, which have not dropped below 100 points since the beginning of September.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see an intense downward trend from September 1, which brought the quote to the important price level of 1.2770. The current correction is a small part of the inertia recovery.
We can assume that price fluctuations along the psychological level of 1.3000 will remain on the market for some time, where it is worth working both for a natural rebound, if the price stays below 1.2935, and for a breakout in the event of price taking above 1.3025.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute and hour periods signal a buy due to price fluctuations within the 1.3000 level. The daily interval, as before, signals a sell due to the inertial movement from September 1.
