The wave marking of the EUR / USD instrument in global terms still looks quite convincing. According to the current wave pattern, the expected wave 4 continues its construction as part of the upward trend section. At the same time, much will depend on the news background. If it changes sharply in favor of the euro, then the entire upward section of the trend may take a longer and 5-wave form.
The wave marking of a smaller scale layout shows that two smaller waves have already been completed inside the assumed wave 4, and an assumed wave 3 or C in 4 is currently being constructed, within which smaller-scale waves are also visible. Therefore, if the current wave marking is correct, then wave 3 or C in 4 will take a 5-wave form. The decline in quotes will resume in the very near future, and the entire wave 4 will take a very extended form and will cast doubt on whether this is wave 4, and not the first in the new downward section of the trend.
Since several news from America continue to be negative recently, it is quite possible to expect the resumption of the construction of an upward trend section. However, the situation in the European Union has also begun to deteriorate in recent weeks, and now the euro does not look like the undisputed leader in a pair with the dollar. Insiders at the ECB announce that there is a strong divergence of opinion in the regulator's camp. Call to mind that, not so long ago, the European Union approved a package of recovery measures for 750 billion euro and a budget for 2021-2027. These documents were adopted with great difficulty and clearly did not imply that the pandemic would resume. After all, the 750 billion euro aimed at economic recovery after the crisis did not mean that the crisis itself would persist and continue. In Europe, the number of coronavirus cases is currently growing, and officials of the European Central Bank cannot agree on how to manage the economy during the second wave of the pandemic. It is reported that some ECB officials are quite optimistic and note a good growth rate of the recovery. Meanwhile, some are pessimistic and believe that more stringent methods of managing the economy should be used to prevent a new decline. Christine Lagarde herself highly appreciates the PEPP program and believes that it has greatly helped in the fight against the consequences of the pandemic and the crisis caused by it. Lagarde reports that the asset purchase program will continue until the end of June 2021 at least. If necessary, the duration of this program will be extended and its scope will be increased.
General conclusions and recommendations:
Seeing as the euro-dollar pair presumably completed the construction of the global wave 3 or C and the second corrective wave as part of the trend section starting on September 1, it is still recommended to sell the instrument with targets located near the estimated 1.1520 mark , corresponding 38.2% Fibonacci, for each downward signal of the MACD indicator.
