The construction of a new downward section of the trend continues. However, yesterday's departure of quotes from the lows reached suggests that the entire section of the trend, which begins on September 1, has taken a three-wave form that has already completed. If this assumption is correct, then the current positions may continue to increase quotes within the new upward wave as part of the upward section of the trend that began on March 19. Naturally, in this case, it will take an even more complex and extended form.
During the last trading day, the GBP/USD instrument gained 70 basis points. Thus, the quotes are approaching the peak of wave 2 or b, and if a successful attempt is made to break this mark, then the probability of completing the construction of a descending wave will be very likely. In this case, the wave structure from September 1 will take a three-wave form. It is still hard to say what the further wave markings will be but it is likely that the increase in the instrument's quotes will continue with targets located near the maximum of the expected wave Z. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level can return the instrument to a downward trend, and wave 3 or C can take a much more complex and extended form.
Vice President of the European Commission (EC), Maros Sefcovic, said that the UK is trying to meet some of the conditions of the Protocol on Northern Ireland, but there are still many unresolved issues. Sefcovic believes that the UK's position in implementing this Protocol is extremely far from what the EU can accept. According to the Vice Chairman of the EC, Britain needs to accelerate the implementation of this Protocol, and also called for the withdrawal of the Internal Market Bill by the end of September. "If this bill is passed, it would constitute a serious violation of protocol as an important part of the UK's withdrawal agreement from the EU and international law," Sefcovic said. "The withdrawal agreement must be implemented by London, cannot be revised, let alone unilaterally change some points, ignored or rejected." said the Vice President of the EC. However, according to the British media, today will be the second vote on this bill in the second reading. Many media outlets expect that the bill will be passed this time. Then there will only be a third, final vote, which can take place after the EU summit, at which it should be known for certain whether a free trade agreement will be concluded in 2020 or not. Most likely, London wants to put pressure on the European Union in this way. They say that if there are no concessions from Brussels, the agreement will not be signed, then the Internal Market Bill will be adopted.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The GBP - USD instrument presumably continues to build a new downward trend. The expected wave 2 or b completed its construction near the level of 38.2%. I continue to recommend selling the instrument with targets around 1.2721 and 1.2539, which is equal to 61.8% and 76.4% for Fibonacci in the expectation of building the third wave, which can be quite long. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level will indicate that the markets are ready for a new decline in quotations.
