EUR / USD
Convincing advantages were not achieved and September ended with a dispute at the limits of the monthly Ichimoku cloud. Moreover, the lower limit of the cloud has slightly changed its position today although the bears closed the month slightly below the cloud. Due to this, the bulls have opened a new month and are now working within it. Breaking down and working in the cloud focuses on rising to its opposite limit (1.2167).
Now, immediate plans in this direction are represented by a rise to the weekly short-term (1.1811) and further liquidation of the daily dead cross (final levels of 1.1812-59). On the other hand, exiting the cloud (1.1688) and restoring the daily downward trend (1.1612) will bring back the relevance of the support zone 1.1567 (lower limit of the daily cloud) - 1.1521 (weekly Fibo Kijun) - 1.1486 (monthly Fibo Kijun), which can determine the future prospects for the bears.
The bulls keep the key supports, which let them have an advantage on H1. At the moment, the resistance of the classic pivot levels - R1 (1.1755) is being tested, followed by R2 (1.1790) and R3 (1.1825). Meanwhile, bearish sentiment may increase if key lines are lost, which are currently located at 1.1720 (central pivot level) and 1.1682 (weekly long-term trend). Further, the main task of bears will be to restore the downward trend (1.1612).
GBP / USD
The bears managed to close September with an "absorption pattern", although the long lower shadow of the monthly candlestick still slightly weakens the result. The support levels that united their efforts in the level of 1.2777 (weekly Kijun + the lower limit of the daily cloud) - 1.2711 (monthly Fibo Kijun) remains significant. The main resistances which will allow the development of the current daily corrective movement are now at the limits of 1.2943 (weekly Fibo Kijun + daily Fibo Kijun) - 1.3075 (weekly Tenkan + daily Kijun + upper limits of the daily cloud) - 1.32 (historical resistance + final level of the daily dead cross). A consolidation above which needs a new detailed assessment of the situation, since it will greatly affect the existing distribution of forces.
There is a deep downward correction at the smaller time frames, which allowed us to test the initial key support – the central pivot level of the day (1.2889). In case of decline, it will lead us to the weekly long-term trend (1.2820). A consolidation below will raise the question of the subsequent recovery of the downward trend (1.2674). If the support levels are able to defend the interests of the bulls, then the classic pivot levels 1.2972 - 1.3026 - 1.3109 will serve as upward guidance for the growth to continue.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classical), Moving Average (120)
