In the most global terms, the construction of a new downward trend section is expected to continue. However, there is more and more confidence every day that the waves abc and everything will end. If this is true, then the price increase will continue from the current levels with targets located near the peak of the z wave. A successful attempt to break the maximum of wave b also indirectly indicates the readiness of the markets for new purchases of the instrument. But in the case of the EUR / USD instrument, the internal wave structure of the upward wave originating on September 23 looks very unusual.
At a closer observation, it can be seen that the wave marking of the section between September 1 and 23 took a three-wave form and looks quite convincing at the same time. An unsuccessful attempt to break the 61.8% Fibonacci level assures that the descending set of waves is complete. Already three unsuccessful attempts to break the 50.0% Fibonacci level also speak in favor of resuming the increase in quotes. Therefore, above the 50.0% Fibonacci level, the probability of building a new upward wave remains.
There is still very small positive news for the British. Since no settlements were reached at the EU summit, the chances of signing a trade agreement becomes even less. For the UK, which is far from the largest (both in terms of territory and population), the topic of coronavirus is now in the first place as high levels of COVID cases have been registered in recent weeks. Almost 19,000 new cases were registered in the last 24 hours. And this is for 68 million people. In Europe, there are more cases of infection only in France, where almost 80,000 were infected over the past day. But this does not make it any easier for the UK and its government. Quarantine measures will continue to be strengthened in the country.
As a result, the prospects for the British pound remain quite vague despite the current wave marking that suggests the construction of an upward wave. This is exactly what I would like to draw attention to. The news background is now so complex and multifaceted that it is very difficult to predict the further movement of the instrument. In the United States, an election is looming that threatens to become the most scandalous in the country's history. There has also been an increase in the number of coronavirus infections in recent days here. Representatives of the Democratic and Republican parties still cannot agree on a new package of assistance to unemployed Americans and the most affected areas of the economy.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The pound-dollar instrument has presumably completed the construction of a downward trend section. A successful attempt to break through the 38.2% level allows us to buy the instrument with targets located near the 1.3191 and 1.3480 marks, which corresponds to 23.6% and 0.0% Fibonacci, for each new MACD signal up. However, the current news background for the instrument can result to a strong complication of the current wave markup at any time. As long as the quotes of the instrument are held above the level of 50.0%, the option with the construction of an upward wave remains the main one.
