To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.1723 and recommended relying on it when making trading decisions. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bulls protect this area during the first test. However, the active actions of sellers return the pair to the level of 1.1723, forming an entry point for short positions further down the trend. Wait for the formation of a false breakout in the area of the morning resistance of 1.1761, as the bulls could not even reach this level.
The further movement of EUR/USD will depend entirely on the decisions taken today by the European Central Bank, as well as on US GDP data. In the second half of the day, buyers will focus on protecting the support of 1.1688, as a lot depends on this level. Only the formation of a false breakout will be a signal to open long positions against the trend. In the case of a test of the area of 1.1688 and the lack of activity from buyers, I recommend that you postpone long positions in EUR/USD until the meeting with the minimum of 1.1644 and buy the euro immediately for a rebound based on the same correction of 15-20 points within the day. However, I repeat that we need to act very carefully against the trend since it is not known what measures the European Central Bank will take and how strong the market movement will be. For buyers to regain control of the market, it is necessary to make much more effort and climb above the resistance of 1.1723, which was missed today in the first half of the day. Only a test of this level from top to bottom forms a good entry point into purchases to restore EUR/USD to the resistance area of 1.1761, where I recommend fixing the profits. There are also moving averages that play on the side of euro sellers.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
Sellers coped with the morning task and broke below the support of 1.1723, forming a fairly convenient entry point for short positions to continue the trend. As long as trading is conducted below the level of 1.1273, the pressure on the euro will remain, which may lead the pair to update the larger minimum of 1.1688, the breakthrough of which depends entirely on today's decisions of the European Central Bank. Fixing below this range will easily push EUR/USD to new lows in the area of 1.1644 and 1.1617, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of an upward correction of the pair in the second half of the day, it is best not to rush with sales, but to wait for the formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.1723 after the ECB press conference. I recommend opening short positions in EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from the maximum of 1.1796, based on a correction of 15-20 points within the day.
Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for October 20 recorded both the growth of long positions and the growth of short ones. However, the latter turned out to be more, which led to an even greater decrease in the positive delta. But despite this, buyers of risky assets believe in the continuation of the bull market, but prefer to proceed cautiously, as there is no good news on the Eurozone yet. Thus, long non-commercial positions rose from 228,295 to 229,878, while short non-commercial positions increased from 59,658 to 63,935. The total non-commercial net position fell to 165,943 from 168,637 a week earlier. However, bullish sentiment on the euro remains quite high in the medium term. The stronger the euro declines against the US dollar at the end of this year, the more attractive it will be for new investors.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a further decline in the euro.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
In the case of an upward correction, the average border of the indicator around 1.1745 will act as a resistance where you can sell the euro.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
