GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed two rebounds on Friday from the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3099) and continued the growth process in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3176), which they later overcame. Thus, today, bull traders have the opportunity to continue buying the British dollar with the goal of a corrective level of 127.2% (1.3264). By and large, all the information background I described in the article on the European is also suitable for the British. The pound remains "its own" extremely important topic - Brexit and negotiations related to a trade agreement with the European Union. However, as the past week has shown, traders focused all their attention on the US election, which also helped the pound to grow. And there is still no news on the negotiations between Brussels and London. The last stage of negotiations between the parties again ended without significant progress. And on November 15, the deadline that Boris Johnson himself stopped expires. European officials said there was a 50/50 chance of a trade agreement. And Michel Barnier and David Frost continue to insist that serious differences remain on several key issues. Thus, the overall probability of reaching an agreement remains low. The information background remains heavy for the British, however, bull traders continue to push this currency up, reducing demand for the American. Perhaps in the near future, the demand for the dollar will recover a little, after all, the presidential election is already behind us.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3191). The rebound of quotes from this Fibo level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3010). The looming bearish divergence in the CCI indicator increases the probability of quotes rebounding from the level of 23.6%. Fixing the pair's rate above the level of 23.6% will increase the chances of further growth towards the next Fibo level of 0.0% (1.3481).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes have consolidated above the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3016), which now allows us to expect growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed under the lower downward trend line, thus, a false breakout of this line followed earlier. However, in recent weeks, the pair has made new attempts to gain a foothold over both trend lines.
Overview of fundamentals:
There was no important or interesting news or events in the UK on Friday. And the American statistics were not taken into account by traders completely.
Us and UK news calendar:
UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (10:35 GMT).
On November 9, the news calendar contains only a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. It is unlikely that he will tell traders anything optimistic, however, last week traders ignored more important information from the Bank of England.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the British pound showed that the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became even more "bearish" during the reporting week. Speculators continued to get rid of long contracts, closing a total of 3,281 units. At the same time, they slightly increased the number of short contracts, opening 1,146. Thus, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category has become more "bearish". However, due to the US presidential election, the British pound rose strongly last week. This data was not included in the latest COT report, so I can't conclude how the mood of major traders changed after November 2. You need to wait for the next COT report and analyze it. According to the latest report, I can say that the chances of the British pound falling are very high right now.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the GBP/USD pair with targets of 1.3099 and 1.3010, if the rebound from the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.3191) is completed on the 4-hour chart. I recommend buying the British dollar with a target of 1.3264 if the close above the level of 1.3191 is completed.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
