On Wednesday during the trades at the Asian markets the pair was under the bears\' pressure but then at the opening of the European session the demand for the Euro had resumed. It can be put down for the ascendant movement on the part of Gold which set a new historical peak. Amid the general optimism the pair renewed the weekly high, fixing the growth near 1.5051. The American trading session was perceived negatively by investors, overturning the pair first to the day opening level of 1.4983, then fixing the local low at 1.4956. Totally, the US dollar won back 14 points versus the European currency. The volatility of the market amounted to 96 pips.
The fundamental review:
Taking into account the lack of the fundamental statistics on the Euro as well as on the US dollar the overall movement was based on the perception of the commodity and stock markets. As it was mentioned above, Gold quotations imparted the impact for the single currency uprise. If at the first part of the trading day Gold reached the high level of 1115.05, then during the American session the quotations fixed the area of 1118.20. The new peak of the European currency was marked after it.
In spite of the European stock markets upturn to the session closure, the pair EUR/USD has declined by the end of the trading day, this can be connected with the Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner statements on the strong dollar maintaining and curbing of the state budget deficit.
The technical picture:
The two - days sideway motion with a gradually widen boundaries of the channel, which reached the level of 1.4946-1.5051, once again says us about the bulls uncompromising attitude and about a weak bears hope for changing of the situation to the right way for them.
The lower border of the upward price channel near 1.4993 was broken through, which decreased the pair to the support level of 1.4949, where the 100 day exponential moving average is going. The further decline will be kept by the level of 1.4919, with the breaching of which, the pair may drop to 1.4859. The growth resumption variant is not excepted, which by all appearances will be restricted by the level of 1.5022.
Bollinger bands are at the medium liquidity level and once again tell us about the dissembled intentions of the market to move sharply to one or another side at any moment. The further pair\'s rising may be restricted by the middle level which currently is going at the base of the 50th figure.
MACD indicator is fixing the reduction step by step, however it is located near the zero mark, continuing the pair\'s lateral movement.
Recommendations for today:
The support levels: 1.4981, 1.4946, 1.4919.
The resistance levels: 1.5022, 1.5050, 1.5135.
Today I recommend to buy the pair at the 1- hour timeframe closing above the level of 1.5023 with the target — T/P 1.5075 and S/L 1.4993.
Sell the pair at 1- hour timeframe closing below the level of 1.4976, with the target — T/P 1.4922 and S/L 1.5005.
Best regards,
Analyst: M. Magdalinin.
