EUR/USD – 1H.
On December 14, the EUR/USD pair attempted to consolidate under the upward trend line, however, it failed. Thus, the "bullish" mood of most traders remains, and the process of growth of quotes can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 261.8% (1.2201). Fixing the pair's rate under the trend line will work in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.2094). Meanwhile, this night, the official results of the US presidential election 2020 became known. Let me remind you that the event that took place on November 3 was the will of the people. Further, on December 14, the so-called "electoral colleges" - specially authorized people from each state, whose votes are counted in the end. Usually, this procedure is purely a formality, since the electors almost always cast their votes for the candidate chosen by the majority in the state. However, there are surprises sometimes. This did not affect the election results. Yesterday, everything went without incident. No elector dared to go against the will of the people and Joe Biden eventually received 306 votes, and Donald Trump – 232. However, Donald Trump himself did not change his opinion: "I am concerned that there will be an illegitimate president in this country. There will be a president who lost, and lost very seriously."
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes continue to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2353). The upward trend line still characterizes the current mood of traders as "bullish" and increases the probability of further growth. As long as the quotes do not consolidate under the trend line, you should not expect a strong fall in the pair.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the Fibo level of 323.6% (1.2079), which allows traders to expect continued growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 423.6% (1.2495). And until the pair completes the consolidation below the level of 323.6%, there are still high chances of growth.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On December 14, in the European Union and America, the calendars of economic events were completely empty. Thus, there was no information background.
The news calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - change in industrial production (14:15 GMT).
On December 15, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and America are almost empty again. There will only be a more or less important report on industrial production in the United States and that's it.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
For the fourth week in a row, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has become more "bullish". This is indicated by COT reports and it coincides with what is happening now for the euro/dollar pair. During the reporting week, speculators opened as many as 13,000 new long contracts (more than in the previous three weeks), and also got rid of 300 short contracts. Thus, they significantly increased their "bullish" mood. The gap between the total number of long and short contracts in the hands of the "Non-commercial" category is growing again. Therefore, the European currency now continues to maintain high chances of continuing growth, although a month ago it was preparing for a powerful fall. The "Commercial" category of traders, on the contrary, opened short contracts, however, it always trades against speculators. And we pay attention first of all to them.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro with targets of 1.2094 and 1.2060, if the consolidation is made under the trend line on the hourly chart. Purchases of the pair could be opened by fixing quotes above the descending corridor, and yesterday - by rebounding from the trend line, with targets of 1.2175 and 1.2201. Trading has been taking place recently without a clear advantage of bulls or bears, but the 4-hour and daily charts maintain high chances of growth.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
