4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.
CCI: 109.9299
The EUR/USD currency pair traded extremely calmly on Tuesday, January 5. Although the pair's quotes continue to remain near local, and at the same time 2.5-year highs, market participants show amazing calm. The quotes tried to start a downward correction twice, and the pair bounced back up twice, unable to even really overcome the moving average line. Thus, at the moment, we can make an unambiguous conclusion about the continuation of the upward trend. Even if the price is fixed below the moving average, this will not mean a change in the trend, since in recent weeks the price has repeatedly overcome the moving average, after which the upward movement has resumed each time. Thus, the current technical picture speaks in favor of continuing the upward movement.
Fundamental events in the first days of the new year were frankly few. Perhaps all the attention of the markets is now again shifted to the States, as well as Donald Trump. Even though no one doubts that Joe Biden will officially become president on January 20, Trump continues to attract attention with his statements and actions. For example, Trump wants to reconsider the results of the vote in Georgia, where he lost by a narrow margin. And again "surfaced" a telephone conversation between Trump and the state authorities, in which the former demanded to find him the missing number of votes. Allegedly, a recording of the conversation by the US president was published in The Washington Post. Presumably, Trump had a conversation with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Trump's pressure on the Secretary of State is audible in the conversation. Trump offered to recount the votes and find 11,780 missing votes, since "he won the state". Trump said that the people of Georgia are angry, and his defeat in the state is impossible. Also, the US president (presumably) said that this is a criminal offense and it is a big risk for the Secretary of State and his lawyer. Notably, Trump himself tweeted that he had a conversation with Raffensperger about election fraud in Georgia. According to Trump, the Secretary of State failed to answer his questions regarding "elections under the table", the destruction of ballots, "dead" voters. Raffensperger himself called Trump's accusations empty and false. The White House did not comment on the recording of the conversation. However, with a high degree of probability, the person who conducts the conversation on the tape is Donald Trump. Recall that last year, Donald was already caught in a similar attempt to exert pressure. However, then it was about the Ukrainian President Zelensky, and Trump did not deny the existence of the conversation and its content. Democrats simply believed that Trump was blackmailing the Ukrainian president with military aid to initiate an investigation into Joe Biden's activities in Ukraine. So putting pressure on the Georgia Secretary of State is Trump – style. However, it is unlikely that there will be any evidence, and it is unlikely that a trial will be initiated on this matter. As we have already said, few people in the United States believe that Trump will be able to turn the election results around by some miracle. Thus, almost none of the Democrats are worried that Joe Biden will become President of the United States on January 20.
By the way, many high-ranking officials in the United States oppose Trump and have previously spoken out. Simply put, Trump does not currently have the level of support to try to turn the outcome of the election around. All courts reject the claims of his team, the US president does not present any evidence of his rightness. Therefore, it is now extremely difficult for him to attract someone else to his side. Moreover, many openly speak out against Trump. For example, 10 former US defense ministers issued a statement calling on the Pentagon not to interfere in politics, clearly hinting at possible instructions from Trump to interfere in the process of transferring power to Joe Biden. The statement says that the elections have taken place and are completely legitimate, all the necessary checks that the president demanded have been completed, it has been repeatedly proved that there was no election fraud, and all errors in the vote count were identified and corrected. Thus, the former heads of the Pentagon believe that the time has come for the announcement of the official election result by the electoral colleges. After that, the Lower House of Congress and the Senate must officially approve the new president of the country. Former ministers have also warned that anyone who gives illegal orders or executes them will face criminal liability. They called on the Ministry of Defense to refrain from any "political action".
Thus, we will witness interesting events in the States for another couple of weeks. There is no doubt that during this time, Trump will remain the number one figure in the media space. Already, there is information that on January 6, when the electoral college will have to officially publish the results of the vote, a protest rally will be held in Washington. More than 100 Republican congressmen intend to vote against Joe Biden and demand a review of the election results. However, these forces are not enough for Republicans, since the House of Representatives is controlled by Democrats. Thus, the block won't even reach the Senate. However, in the Senate, nothing worthwhile for Trump and his company will shine. For such an important and fateful decision as blocking the transfer of power, given the fact that Trump has not presented any evidence of election violations, at least 2/3 of the Senate must vote "yes". There is no simple majority. In the Senate, the Republicans have the advantage, but minimal. It is impossible to imagine that any of the Democrats will vote "for" this proposal. So all of Trump's activity now is nothing more than waving his fists after a fight. Meanwhile, the third "wave" of the "coronavirus" has begun in the United States. Every day, 300,000 new cases are recorded. However, at the same time, the US authorities continue to focus on the beginning of the vaccination procedure of the population, keeping silent about the fact that it will take at least a year to vaccinate about 300 million people. Thus, the US dollar, which has fallen in price in recent months, may continue to do so, although there are still few reasons for this. The economy in the United States is now stronger than in the EU and feels much better. "Coronavirus" in Europe has not been canceled, only Europeans are also actively introducing "lockdowns" at home, unlike the Americans. We continue to believe that, from a fundamental point of view, the growth of the US dollar is more logical. But, from a technical point of view, we continue to signal an upward trend and recommend trading on the trend, not against it.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of January 6 is 73 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.2227 and 1.2373. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal a new round of downward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2268
S2 – 1.2207
S3 – 1.2146
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2329
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair has started a new round of upward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to hold open long positions with targets of 1.2329 and 1.2373 as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed upwards. It is recommended to open new sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average with targets of 1.2227 and 1.2207.
