EUR/USD 15M
The 15-minute timeframe showed that both linear regression channels started to turn down after reaching the Kijun-sen line. From our point of view, there should be at least one more round of downward movement, but don't forget about the new downward channel on the hourly chart. Leaving it for the second time will indicate a very high probability of bringing back the upward trend.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair corrected to the critical Kijun-sen line on the hourly timeframe on Wednesday, January 13, then it rebounded and resumed the downward movement. Unfortunately, the pair went beyond the previous descending channel as part of the movement, which has now taken on a new look. Since it rebounded from the critical line, we expect EUR/USD to fall. However, we should admit that the pair may follow the pound/dollar pair's example, which suddenly moved up by another 250 points for the last two days. This proves that both the dollar and the demand for it are still weak. Moreover, this weakness cannot be linked to the events that are currently taking place in the United States. Otherwise, the dollar would be falling at this particular time. One can, of course, assume that anti-risk sentiment is growing among traders, but in practice, if some kind of cataclysm occurs in the United States, then investors would not rush in investing in the greenback, because they consider it the least risky currency. Thus, we continue to insist on the speculative growth option. Consequently, it may resume if market participants are not yet fully satiated with US dollar sales.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair increased by 55 points during the last reporting week (December 29-January 4). Again, minimal price changes, however, the pair has been steadily rising in recent weeks, but at a slow pace. The upward trend remains strong and stable despite the fact that the pair rises or falls by no more than 100 points every week. However, the changes shown in the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report are also minimal. A group of non-commercial traders opened 2,000 Buy-contracts (longs) and 3,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position has formally decreased, and professional traders have become more bearish. However, this is only formally, because non-commercial traders have opened more than 340,000 contracts. Thus, opening/closing 2-3,000 contracts is nothing, a mere drop in the ocean. Moreover, strengthening the bearish sentiment does not mean much, because the COT reports signal the demand for the euro. They don't take into account the demand for the US dollar. When the net position was steadily decreasing (as seen in the second indicator) several months ago, the demand for the euro decreased among large traders. However, we do not exclude the fact that the demand for the dollar also decreased at the same time, therefore, with a visible drop in the interest of large traders in the euro, the single currency grew anyway. An unpleasant moment. In the past few weeks, the changes in the COT reports are such that no conclusions can be drawn at all. If earlier the green and red lines of the first indicator converged or diverged, now they are simply directed sideways, signaling the absence of changes.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech on Wednesday. She said that the latest forecasts on the economy that the ECB published remain relevant, despite a new increase in the number of cases of coronavirus. Lagarde also noted that several factors of uncertainty that used to affect the prospects of the EU economy are no longer present. For example, the US election, as well as the unknown timing of the creation of a vaccine against COVID-2019 and the start of vaccination of the population. She also noted the positivity of having an agreement with the UK and was generally very optimistic. "We are starting the year on a positive note," the ECB chief said. In general, Lagarde's words could inspire optimism in euro buyers, but the euro just fell after her speech. Perhaps Lagarde's optimism was excessive, as the situation in the world remains very difficult, and various international organizations, such as the IMF, continue to signal a possible deterioration in the state of the economy in 2021.
To date, no important events are planned in the European Union for now. Thus, traders will once again have to settle for political news from overseas. However, the topic of the re-impeachment of Donald Trump, of course, is very interesting, but it has little effect on the dollar and the euro/dollar pair. Therefore, everyone is focused on technical factors.
We have two trading ideas for January 14:
1) Buyers continue to rest and wait for the bears to be full. The pair corrected enough yesterday, so the downward movement may continue. You can consider options for opening new long positions when the price settles above a new descending channel. In this case, the targets will be the Senkou Span B line (1.2263) and the resistance level of 1.2314. Take Profit in this case can range from 40 to 80 points.
2) Bears have grown stronger recently and have not yet let go of the initiative. Thus, short positions can be held open while aiming for the support level of 1.2097. Take Profit in this case can be up to 60 points. You are advised to open new shorts in the event of a rebound from the upper channel line or the Kijun-sen line (1.2209).
Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
