GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3625), a reversal in favor of the British currency and an increase to the level of 1.3698. However, this level was followed by a rebound with a reversal in favor of the US currency. Traders can now expect a return to the level of 1.3625. Meanwhile, in the UK, the third wave of coronavirus is slowly waning, although the number of new cases is still very high. In recent days - under 50 thousand new cases every day. At the same time, the country's authorities began to sound the alarm about a new Brazilian strain of coronavirus, which has already begun to spread across the planet in the same way as the British strain did before. Last night, Britain officially closed air services to South America, as well as to Portugal, to prevent the spread of the Brazilian COVID. Also yesterday, the World Health Organization (WHO) held an emergency meeting, which was dedicated to new strains of coronavirus. WHO officials warned earlier that there could be many more new mutations in the world. The reason is that the virus is spreading too fast all over the planet. It also became known that humanity is unlikely to achieve collective immunity in 2021. Many health experts report that although several COVID vaccines have been developed recently, it will take a very long time to vaccinate 7 billion people, or at least most of the world's population. There is also an acute issue of the cost of the vaccine since not all segments of the population and countries can afford to buy a vaccine.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair made a return to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3701) after rebounding from it earlier. A new rebound of quotes from this level will again work in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3481). But it is more likely that the pair's quotes will close above the level of 127.2%, which will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 161.8% (1.3977).
GBP/USD - Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). Only the closing of the pair below the level of 100.0% will work in favor of a further fall in quotes.
GBP/USD - Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed above the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no important economic reports in the UK on Thursday. In America, only a report on applications for unemployment benefits was released, which theoretically could support the Briton.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - change in GDP (07:00 GMT).
UK - change in industrial production (07:00 GMT).
US - retail trade volume change (13:30 GMT).
US - change in industrial production (14:15 GMT).
USA - consumer sentiment Index from the University of Michigan (15"00 GMT).
On January 15, the UK has already released reports on GDP (slightly better than expected) and industrial production (worse than expected). Traders did not pay attention to this data.
COT( Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from January 5 showed the same minimal activity of major players as in the case of the euro currency. During the New Year's week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 1,028 long contracts and 1,111 short contracts. That is, almost an equal number. Thus, I cannot conclude that during the reporting week, the mood of speculators became more "bullish" or more "bearish". Judging by the total number of open contracts in this category, the mood remains more "bullish". However, on December 1, the situation was exactly the opposite, and the pound sterling was growing even then. In general, there are no strong changes in the mood of major players.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to buy the British dollar now when the quotes rebound from the level of 100.0% (1.3625) on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3698 and 1.3744. Or in the case of a close above the level of 1.3698 with targets of 1.3744 and 1.3820. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling at the close of quotes under the level of 1.3625 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3522.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
