In this review, we will touch on some details of yesterday's speech by the chairman of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), the situation with the spread of COVID-19 in European countries, and also look at today's economic calendar.
In his speech yesterday, the head of the Fed, as expected the day before, said nothing radically new. Jerome Powell said that it is too early to talk about the end of the stimulus, which means that large-scale support for the US economy will continue. Let me remind you that the other day, US President-elect Joe Biden promised a program of incentives for the world's leading economy - for several trillion dollars. Such a bold and very serious statement by the new American leader will make it clear whether his words are at odds with concrete actions. If we return to yesterday's speech by Jerome Powell, then it is still far enough to achieve inflation goals, and the level of US government debt is in an acceptable state and does not affect the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to plague Europe. Most countries have introduced more stringent restrictions. So, in Germany, the country's leadership is considering the possibility of introducing a mega-lockdown, after 1,244 people died from coronavirus in the country over the past day. This is the highest daily death rate in Germany for all time of COVID-19, and experts predict that this is still far from the limit. The difficult situation associated with the epidemic continues to remain in France, Spain, and several other countries, where restrictive measures are also being tightened. But in Sweden, everything is different. For example, wearing protective masks in public places in this Scandinavian country is not mandatory, but recommended. Restrictions are minimal, almost all enterprises and institutions continue their work, of course, with amendments to COVID-19.
The main macroeconomic events of the outgoing week will be a large block of statistics from the United States, which will begin to be published starting from 14:30 London time. I recommend paying attention to data on retail sales, industrial production, and the producer price index.
Daily
Even though the current week ended with a decline for the main currency pair, it seems that some adjustment of the exchange rate is possible on the last trading day. In particular, this is indicated by yesterday's daily doji candle, which has a lower shadow much longer than the upper one. In general, I recommend always paying attention to the candle shadows and their size, especially on the weekly and daily charts, as they are considered the strongest in terms of working out candle signals. For example, the longer lower shadow highlights the market's apparent reluctance to decline and the strength of the bulls, which were able to cut significant losses. Japanese candlesticks are a very interesting and powerful factor that determines the price movement, however, this topic is so extensive that it will take a very long time to sort everything out. And it is impossible to immediately digest all the extensive information related to candle analysis. In future reviews, I will try to pay a little more attention to this topic and give more significant explanations for a better understanding. As for today's trading, the euro bulls will likely try to slightly correct the exchange rate. Today, I recommend focusing on purchases, but with small goals, while solely counting on the correction. At the same time, I recommend tracking the price behavior in the narrow range of 1.2110-1.2178, which was formed following the results of yesterday's trading. If there are reversal signals on H4 and H1 below the upper limit of the range, we sell EUR/USD, and if bullish candles appear near the support level of 1.2110, we try to buy. Given the large block of statistics from the United States, it is impossible to exclude a sharp directional movement in one direction and exit from the created range, but I consider it a quite risky positioning to trade on the breakdown of levels on the last day of weekly trading. It is better not to rush and wait for Monday when the results of the weekly trading that ended today will be able to draw more definite conclusions and offer clearer recommendations.
