US stock indices greeted the new head of the White House with record highs.
Market participants have high hopes for Joe Biden, who intends to increase the stimulus program and accelerate mass vaccinations in the United States, which is a key driver of the national economic recovery in 2021.
The price of the greenback fell on Wednesday against almost all of its main competitors. The prospects for an increase in the US budget deficit are putting pressure on the US currency.
It is assumed that the adoption of the next large-scale stimulus package in the United States will lead to an increase in inflation in the country, reducing the attractiveness of the USD for investors.
"The dollar's weakness versus the emerging market and commodity currencies should continue as vaccines spread globally and the US economy is boosted, but the greenback's outlook for the euro is not as straightforward for the foreseeable future," strategists at Westpac said.
"A reassessment of the US economic outlook following Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion budget plan amid the still weak economic picture in the eurozone is likely to keep the dollar strong against the euro," they added.
Fears about possible verbal intervention by the ECB did not allow the single currency to take part in the rally in risky assets yesterday, caused by expectations of further stimulation of the US economy.
On Thursday, the European regulator will announce the first decision on monetary policy this year.
The ECB is not expected to adjust interest rates or the parameters of the asset repurchase program.
The main question is whether the head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde wants to put pressure on the euro through verbal intervention.
"We are very closely watching the dynamics of the euro, but we are not targeting it," Lagarde said last week.
Some experts believe that the prospects for improving relations between Europe and America under the Biden administration will keep the ECB from depreciating the single currency.
However, a strong euro poses a challenge to the pandemic-weakened European economy, and the ECB's announcement of its willingness to ramp up its asset repurchase program if necessary could achieve the same goal as a direct intervention - to reduce demand for the single currency.
On Thursday, the greenback continued to weaken, sagging below 90.2 points and reaching almost weekly lows. This allowed the main currency pair to recover to 1.2145 after yesterday's decline to 1.2078.
Europe is now struggling to contain yet another onslaught of COVID-19 amid fears that a new strain of the virus could lead to stricter restrictions in the region and cause great economic damage.
"The slow pace of COVID-19 vaccinations in the EU and the prospect of increased economic stimulus in the US are likely to push the euro down against the dollar," TD Securities said.
"America is far ahead of Europe in terms of vaccination rates. While expectations for US economic growth are below pre-pandemic levels, the outlook for the European economy has clearly deteriorated. This gives a good reason to expect the EUR/USD pair to retest below 1.2000 levels in the coming weeks," they added.
Strategists at ABN Amro believe that stronger US economic growth and a less dovish Fed, along with higher yields in the United States, should boost the dollar against the euro.
Following the Joe Biden administration's proposal to adopt a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package, the Dutch bank raised its estimate for US GDP for 2021 from 3.2% to 5.8%, and also lowered its forecast for the EUR/USD exchange rate at the end of this year from 1.2500 to 1.1500.
