Yesterday in the American session, Crude Oil (WTI- #CL) fell to a low of 98.50, just around the 4/8 Murray zone which represents strong support. Since that level, WTI has managed to recover part of the losses and is currently trading at 106.98 above the 200 EMA and below the 21 SMA.
One factor that weakened the strength of WTI was the hopes of progress in the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. This boosted investor confidence and equity markets rose, weighing on the US dollar, gold and crude oil.
Additionally, Crude oil was affected by the increase in fears that could affect the demand for fuel due to the new restrictions of COVID-19 in China.
Early in the American session, crude oil is breaking out of the downtrend channel that was formed since March 23.
If in the next few hours, it consolidates above the 21 SMA located at 107.35, a bullish move is likely to follow. WTI may reach 5/8 Murray at 112.50. Above 5/8 Murray, the path is free from obstacles. WTI is expected to reach the 6/8 Murray zone at 125.00
WTI rebounded from the area $92.19 towards the level 116.62 and has made a correction that coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 100.00. This means that the uptrend has taken a short break to continue its upward movement in the coming days.
As long as crude oil settles above the 200 EMA located at 102.36 and above the psychological level of 100.00 (4/8 Murray), there is a chance of a price rally and it could go as high as 130.00.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy above the 21 SMA at 107.35 with targets at 112.50 and 125.00. The eagle indicator is giving a positive signal and we could expect a further uptrend.