SPX has made an impressive climb from 4137 at the beginning of March to 4637. Price is in a bullish trend with no sign of a reversal. Price has surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline and this is an important sign of strength from bulls.
Red lines - Fibonacci extension
However bulls should not be over optimistic. Counter trend rallies at the end make traders forget about previous trend and I believe this is the case here as well. Most market participants talk about the start of a new up trend and breaking to new all time highs. Traders need to be very cautious specially in the near term. Price is approaching another key Fibonacci resistance at the 78.6% level at 4665. We also find at 4646 the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the first upward move. What does this mean? With price now just above 4600, I believe the upside potential is limited to a move towards 4670 area. The risk to the downside is bigger. At least a short-term pull back should be expected. At current levels I prefer to be neutral if not bearish. A pull back towards 4450-4350 is justified.
