Today, we will return to the consideration of the pound/dollar currency pair, where we will focus on the technical picture of this instrument, and also highlight the most important fundamental events that can have a significant impact on the price dynamics of this interesting currency pair. If we start with today's statistics, the UK will publish the PMI index in the services sector, and during the US session, employment data from ADP will be released, as well as the index of business activity in the services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will be published. All the details are in the economic calendar. It will be extremely important for the British currency tomorrow when the Bank of England will announce its decision on the rates and volume of the asset purchase program, as well as publish an accompanying statement, followed by a press conference of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. As it has been repeatedly noted, the last day of the current five-day period will be very important, when investors will learn about the state of the US labor market.
Daily
Turning to the technical analysis of the GBP/USD currency pair, I will start with the daily timeframe, where a very interesting picture is observed. Despite another attempt by the bulls to break through the strong and important resistance level of 1.3757, this mark remained unconquered. Moreover, on February 1, there was a strong rebound down from this level, as a result of which a candle with a long upper shadow (highs at 1.3756) and an impressive bearish body appeared on the daily chart. Usually, when similar bounces occur from such strong levels and similar candles appear, the market continues to move in the chosen direction. In this case, at yesterday's trading, it was quite possible to expect the continuation of the downward dynamics of the British pound. However, as can be seen from the daily candle formed yesterday, investors prefer not to rush and wait for tomorrow's decision of the British Central Bank, as well as Friday's data on the US labor market.
In my opinion, yesterday's doji candle with a tiny bullish body and equidistant shadows signals exactly this, namely, the reluctance of investors to take risks. It is worth paying attention to the fact that during yesterday's trading, attempts to break above one of the key levels of 1.3700, as well as to break through a strong support level in the area of 1.3630, were not successful. I believe that this also indicates the current market uncertainty ahead of important events from the United Kingdom and the United States of America. Since two consecutive daily candles have already closed under the red line of the Ichimoku indicator Tenkan, players who want to increase the exchange rate today need to return the quote above the Tenkan, otherwise, their position will become even more difficult. Bears on the pair need to push through the strong support area of 1.3630-1.3600 and close trading below 1.3600. In this case, their chances of further movement of the quote in the south direction will significantly increase.
H1
On the hourly chart, the pair is currently trading below the used moving averages of 50 MA, 89 EMA, and 200 EMA, each of which can provide strong resistance to the quote and turn it down. In particular, 50 MA is already on the defensive right now and does not miss the quote above yet. I recommend that you carefully monitor which candlesticks will form near the current prices, that is, under all three moving averages. In the case of bearish patterns of candlestick analysis, I recommend selling the pair with the nearest targets in the area of 1.3635-1.3615. If bullish candlestick patterns appear in this target zone, we buy with the nearest target near 1.3700 or 1.3750. Also, it is worth looking at purchases if the pair breaks up all three hourly moving averages, fixes above them, and gives a pullback to the broken moving averages. As you understand, the situation for making trade decisions is very difficult at the moment, so for those who do not want to take risks, it is better to refrain from trading the British pound for the time being.
