4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.
CCI: 129.3531
The British pound for the sixth time failed to overcome the level of 1.3744 at the auction on Monday, February 8. A new rebound and a new round of downward movement followed. Thus, the technical picture on Monday was not clarified. There are still "swings", the bulls still can not update the 2.5-year highs, although they continue to trade the pair not far from them, and the bears still do not find reasons to buy the US dollar for sterling. We have repeatedly said that in the current situation, you need to be flexible and look for other ways to trade the pound/dollar pair if there is such a desire at all. For example, you can use the most recent timeframes, such as the hourly one, in the analysis. There you can still catch a short-term trend and trade within it. The trading system "Linear Regression Channels" is a trend system, so at this time it generates too many false signals. The most interesting thing is that the trend is now there - it is upward and visible to the naked eye.
Meanwhile, today, February 9, consideration of the impeachment passed by the lower house of Congress to Donald Trump by the US Senate begins. For the first time in history, impeachment proceedings are applied to a president who has already left office. For the first time in history, the House of Representatives impeaches the same president twice. The purpose of the actions of the Democrats, who are the initiators of the procedure for removing the president, is to remove him from any high public positions in the future. The Democrats charge that Trump incited an attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Prosecutors claim that by his rash actions, the former US president threatened the lives of congressmen, the process of transferring power to Joe Biden, as well as US national security. However, several Republican senators have already said that the impeachment procedure itself against a president who has already left office is "unconstitutional". Thus, most likely, the majority of Republican senators will vote against impeaching Trump, although several of them have already expressed their readiness to support impeachment.
Meanwhile, it is rumored that members of the Republican Party are ready to unite around Trump again. In the past few months, when Trump has been shouting daily left and right about the stolen election, virtually no Republicans have supported these claims. Also, none of them confirmed the information about "mass fraud" in the elections, but at the same time, few of them accused Trump of anything. That is, the Republicans seem to understand that Trump should leave, but at the same time, no one wants to open conflict with him. And it's not even a personal showdown between the president and his fellow party members. The fact is that when it comes to politics, you can't focus on just one person. If Trump falls out with the Republican Party, leaves it, creates his party, then the Republicans themselves will inevitably lose part of the electorate. It doesn't matter whether Trump is good or bad, more than 70 million Americans voted for him in the last election. Trump has created his cult following. A certain number of Americans believed in the huge amount of completely unconfirmed nonsense that Trump poured out of himself for 4 years. Also, many see Trump as a strong leader despite the huge number of mistakes that are obvious to everyone. Nevertheless, many Americans are adherents of radical actions, do not support the "Black Lives Matter" movement, some are racists (no one will deny the existence of this problem in American society), some see Trump as a patriarch who does not allow women to high positions and fights for the rights of men. One way or another, but it is impossible to call Trump unpopular. And his popularity is also the popularity of the Republican Party. Breaking this union will hurt both of them. Thus, most likely, the second attempt of the Democrats to remove Trump once and for all from big politics is also doomed to failure.
Meanwhile, most Americans, in principle, support the idea of removing Trump from high government posts. 56% of the Americans surveyed (it should be noted that their total number is small, about 500 adults) were in favor of impeaching the president. 43% opposed the measure.
In the UK, meanwhile, there is no important news. Britain continues to vaccinate the population and this indicator is in first place among the countries of Europe. At the same time, the "lockdown" continues to operate in the Foggy Albion, which is already the third in a row. Unfortunately, all this fundamental background has little impact on the movement of the pound/dollar pair. We tend to believe that only the factor of the "new stimulus package for the US economy" can globally affect the mood of traders. However, so far, technical factors continue to be in the first place. As before, the prospects of the bulls rest on the level of 1.3744, before overcoming which it is not necessary to talk about the continuation of the upward trend. At the same time, there are still "swings", in which it is extremely difficult to trade at all. At the same time, both linear regression channels are directed upwards.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 89 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Tuesday, February 9, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3650 and 1.3828. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a new round of downward movement within the framework of the continuing "swing".
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.3702
S2 – 1.3672
S3 – 1.3641
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.3733
R2 – 1.3763
R3 – 1.3794
Trading Recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe is in a new round of upward movement within the framework of the continuing "swing". Thus, today it is recommended to trade for an increase with the targets of 1.3794 and 1.3824 if the price is fixed above the level of the Murray "7/8" - 1.3763. It is recommended to consider sell orders with a target of 1.3641 if the price bounces from the level of 1.3733 (1.3745).
