USD/CAD is trading around 1.2600. The pair is expected to test the strength of the 200-period moving average around 1.2606.
The aggressive statements from the FED have fueled the rally of USD/CAD from the low of 1.2401. In less than 3 days, the pair has gained over 200 pips. This is a sign of weakness for the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD could reach the psychological level of 1.3000 in the coming days.
In the American session, USD/CAD seems determined to test the 200 EMA. The latest data on Canada's employment change was better than expected. This could favor the CAD correction and the price could fall towards the 21 SMA at 1.2536.
The main driver to the firm USD and the weak CAD was because hawkish comments this week, especially from Fed Vice President Lael Brainard and James Bullard. Their remarks caused a rally in the USD/CAD pair. This trend is likely to continue next week.
The Canadian dollar has also been affected and weak against the US dollar due to sliding global oil prices. The main driver for the fall was the recent announcements about oil reserve releases from EIA nations.
The 4-hour technical chart shows that USD/CAD is showing overbought signs. Hence, a technical correction is possible towards the 21 SMA at 1.2536 or the top of the downtrend channel that was broken around 1.2451.
This corrective move could invite the bulls and give them an opportunity to buy back the Canadian dollar around the psychological level of 1.25 or around 6/8 Murray at 1.2450.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is only sell if the pair manages to stay below the 200 EMA located at 1.2606, with targets at 1.2536 (21 SMA) and 1.2460 (6/8). The eagle indicator is giving an overbought signal which could support our bearish strategy.
