4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.
CCI: 45.1762
The EUR/USD currency pair on the last trading day of last week was trading with a decrease, but at the same time with very low volatility. Over the past five business days, this figure has fallen to 50 points per day. So the first thing to note is: trading the pair is now quite problematic due to the low volatility. More precisely, you can trade, but the profit levels are reduced. Further, the price corrected on Friday to the moving average line and failed to overcome it. Thus, the upward movement may resume on Monday with a new force. A little confusing is the fact that the price has not yet been able to reach the previous local high of 1.2190, but it is not yet evening. After the price rebound from the moving average, this level can be overcome. Thus, at the moment, we are inclined to continue the upward movement. This hypothesis perfectly correlates with two "global fundamental factors", which also speak in favor of the depreciation of the US currency. Recall that the dollar is supposedly cheaper for more than 10 months based on the huge amounts of freshly printed dollars that are poured into the economy to stimulate. In the next couple of weeks, a new stimulus package may be approved, and then dollars will again flow into the economy and be dropped from the helicopter. Consequently, the US currency will again have grounds for a long fall.
The failure of the Democrats. Even though the Democrats won both the White House and both houses of Congress in the last election, they did not manage to remove Donald Trump from high government positions. The former US president was acquitted by the Senate in an impeachment case in which he was accused of sedition on January 6. All last week there were hearings in the Senate. Initially, 56 senators (that is, 50 Democrats and 6 Republicans) voted in favor of the constitutional impeachment procedure against the former president. Then came the proceedings themselves in the events of January 6. The prosecution was represented by 9 congressmen-Democrats, who tried to present as vividly as possible the events of January 6, which took place directly in the Capitol itself during a meeting of both chambers. Thus, all the senators were also witnesses of the process in question. Democrats accused Trump of devising a complex strategy that consisted of four steps. At first, before the November 3 election, he spent several months convincing his supporters that he could only lose if the election was rigged. After that, when the election was already held and Trump lost, he appealed to all sorts of courts to invalidate the election or review its results, constantly repeating the mantra that the Democrats "stole the election" and not giving a single proof of his words. Then there was a conversation with the Secretary of State of Georgia, in which Trump called on him to find the missing votes and threatened criminal liability. When it became clear that even those judges whom he appointed had turned away from Trump, Trump tried to disrupt the certification of the election results, which took place on January 6 in the Capitol building. Then, at a rally near the White House, Trump uttered the phrase: "If you don't fight, you won't have a country anymore," after which an angry crowd went to the Capitol. During the entire rally near the White House, Trump said several dozen times that "it is necessary to fight and fight".
Trump's defense was far less eloquent and more concise. Republicans tried to convince jurors that Trump's words at the rally were not an outright call to attack Congress. His words were the result of a very bad atmosphere in American politics, not the cause. The defense also insisted that words can only be a crime if a disastrous result is inevitable after they are uttered. In the case of January 6, many radical groups came to a rally near the White House and this was known in advance. Thus, in general, the Republicans managed to break up the accusation. The last attempt of the Democrats was to talk about the inevitability of such a sad outcome since Trump has been heating the situation for several months, openly lying (about falsifications) and provoking his supporters to radical actions. But it was bound to fail.
All the proceedings were short-lived, just a few days. The fact is that the proceedings in the Senate are not defined by the legislation and are held in an almost free format. There is a certain order, but it is not as strict as in the courts. By and large, one hundred senators, after they have listened to the accusatory and defensive speeches, can only vote whether the suspect is guilty or not. Republicans have promised to delay the trial for weeks by calling witnesses if Democrats start calling their own. That is, the Republicans were confident in their success initially and wanted to finish the job as soon as possible. As a result, the Senate voted, and 57 senators out of 67 required to impeach Trump cast their votes. Including 7 Republicans. Never before in history has a president received so many votes for impeachment from his fellow party members. Thus, Trump is now exonerated and can run for a second term in 2024. The former president himself, after the acquittal, again called the entire process "the greatest witch hunt in the history of the country", and the leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, who voted against impeachment, said that Trump is still responsible for the events of January 6 and a criminal case can still be opened against him. The current US President Joe Biden was disappointed with the failed impeachment attempt, called Trump's guilt not requiring proof, and expressed regret for the presence of violence in the country, which should not be. "Although the Senate did not want to vote for impeachment, the essence of the charges is indisputable. Even those who opposed the sentencing, such as Senate Minority Leader McConnell, believe that Donald Trump is guilty of this shameful act. This is a sad chapter in our history. It reminds us that democracy is very fragile," Joe Biden said.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of February 15 is 48 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.2071 and 1.2167. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may signal a round of downward correction.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2085
S2 – 1.2024
S3 – 1.1963
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2146
R2 – 1.2207
R3 – 1.2268
Trading Recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair is trying to resume its upward movement after a rebound from the moving average. Thus, today it is recommended to keep long positions open with targets of 1.2146 and 1.2167 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down again. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average, with a target of 1.2024.
