GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair also performed a slight drop, after which a reversal in favor of the British dollar and a resumption of growth. By this morning, the pair's quotes rose to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3895). Closing the pair above the level of 1.3895 will increase the probability of further growth of the British dollar in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.4063). An upward trend corridor keeps the current traders' sentiment "bullish". Meanwhile, in the United States this weekend, the impeachment trial of Donald Trump ended. Let me remind you that the trial took place in the Senate. The senators, who served as jurors, had to sort out the question of whether Donald Trump was to blame for the January 6 riot that led to the death of 5 people and the pogrom in the Capitol? The decision made by the Senate turned out to be extremely political. The Senate acquitted Donald Trump. 50 Democratic senators voted in favor of the impeachment, 43 Republican senators voted against, and 7 Republican senators voted in favor. Thus, except for 7 Republicans who voted against Trump, we can say that their own voted for their own. Trump's fellow party members in the Senate once again saved the former president from impeachment, as well as from getting into the Guinness Book of World Records, as a president who was impeached after he left office. Thus, there is now one less political problem in the United States. However, the completion of the process did not have any favorable impact on the US dollar. The US currency remains under pressure against both the euro and the British dollar. Thus, there are more important factors that traders take into account when trading with both the major pairs.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the level of 1.3850, performed a slight drop. However, the bullish divergence of the indicator allowed a new reversal in favor of the British currency and consolidation above the level of 1.3850, which increases the probability of continued growth of this currency in the direction of the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3977).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Friday, the UK released important reports on GDP and industrial production. The first one was better than traders' expectations and amounted to +1% in the fourth quarter. Industrial production was worse than expected, but traders paid more attention to the first report.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On February 15, in the UK and the US, the calendars of economic events are empty. Thus, the influence of the information background will be absent today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from February 9 on the British pound was quite interesting and noteworthy. In recent weeks, speculators have not made serious steps in the direction of strengthening the "bullish" mood. However, all this time, the pound was still growing. The latest COT report showed an increase in the number of long contracts focused on the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders by 6,465 units. At the same time, speculators got rid of 4,660 short contracts. Thus, the Briton grew even without increasing long contracts from speculators, now it has an even greater chance of continuing growth.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to buy the British dollar at the close above the level of 1.3820 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3895. This goal has been worked out. New purchases are recommended when closing above 1.3895 with a target of 1.3976. It is recommended to sell the pound at the close under the trend corridor with the targets of 1.3744 and 1.3698.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
