Following the results of the last five-day trading, the dollar/franc currency pair showed a downward trend and closed the weekly trading at 0.8912. As noted in today's articles, the US dollar has lost ground against all major competitors, and the Swiss franc is no exception.
Weekly
Despite the decline that the USD/CHF currency pair showed on February 8-12, in my opinion, there were no significant changes in the technical picture on the weekly timeframe. This can be judged by the fact that the pair continues to trade between the Tenkan(red) and Kijun(blue) lines of the Ichimoku indicator. In this particular case, the Tenkan supports the price without letting it go lower, and the Kijun line acts as a resistance. What are the prospects of the pair, judging by the weekly scale? The breakdown of the blue Kijun line will most likely lead to a breakout of the upper border of the brown descending channel. If this happens, the pair will go up from the channel and consolidate above its resistance line(it is also the upper limit of the channel), with a high degree of probability, it will be possible to assume that the trend has changed for the USD/CHF pair, which will create good prerequisites for subsequent growth, where the nearest targets will be 0.9080, 0.9120, 0.9160, and 0.9200. If the market chooses the downside direction, and the pair is fixed under the Tenkan, this will be a signal for the continuation of the downward trend, and the next targets will be 0.8835, 0.8790, and 0.8756, where the January lows of this year were shown.
Daily
On the daily chart, after a false exit up from the Ichimoku cloud, the pair returned to its limits and even tried to exit in the opposite direction, that is, down. However, this was not supposed to happen, as the 50 simple moving average, together with the lower limit of the daily cloud, did not let the quotes lower and it remained within its limits. Let me remind you that when a particular currency pair is traded within the Ichimoku cloud, this indicates the uncertainty of market participants regarding the further direction of the quotes. Given the false exit up, the subsequent return to the limits of the cloud, as well as attempts to exit it in the downside direction, I dare to assume that in event of a true breakdown of the blue 50 MA, the lower border of the cloud will most likely not stand, and the pair will fall.
Moving on to trading recommendations for USD/CHF, it is worth noting that judging by the two timeframes reviewed, it may be too early to open positions right here and now, so I recommend that the most cautious traders take a wait-and-see position for now. For those who trade more aggressively and risky, I recommend considering selling USD/CHF as the main trading idea. At least, for now, it looks like that. When bearish candlestick patterns appear in the strong price zone of 0.8920-0.8955, we open short positions with targets of 0.8880 and 0.8840. If the pullback up to the indicated prices does not take place and the decline begins from the current values, we expect a breakdown of the 0.8888 mark, where the lows were shown on February 10, and after fixing under this level, on the rollback to it, we sell with the nearest goal in the area of 0.8840.
