GBP/USD 1H
The pound/dollar pair resumed its upward movement on Friday, and continued it on Monday without a twinge of conscience. Given that Monday was a holiday in America, and the UK did not release a single report, not a single news, not a single event. It's just that the pound continues to grow no matter what. In fundamental articles, we regularly draw readers' attention to "global fundamental factors", which, from our point of view, are the main reason for the pound's growth. However, even they have recently failed to explain everything. For one reason or another, but the pound continues to rise in price, therefore, you are still advised to trade along the trend, that is, upward. In our previous review for the pound, we advised you to buy the pair if a rebound from the critical line (level 1.3767) or consolidation above the 1.3804 level (now no longer relevant) occurs. The price did not reach the 1.3767 level on Friday, just a few points, but it settled above the 1.3804 level, so it was possible to open long positions while aiming for 1.3876, which was successfully reached today. Thus, traders could earn about 60 points on this signal. You were advised to sell the pair when it settled below the 1.3804 level and such a signal also appeared, but the bears did not reach the target level of 1.3767, so the deal had to be closed at about 1.3818, since the price eventually settled above the 1.3804 level. Therefore, traders could get a loss worth 15-16 points on a short position.
GBP/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels are directed to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, clearly signaling an upward trend in the short term. Hopes and plans for a correction did not come true, and the dollar continues to simply fall. Now, if the 1.3917 level is confidently overcome, then the upward movement will continue to the 40th level, or rather to 1.3984.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair rose by 80 points during the last reporting week (February 2-8). Yes, the pound is not in a rush to rise. The price increases are very moderate - 50-80 points per week, but they have been stable over the past five months. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed a major shift in the mood of the big players. A group of non-commercial traders opened new 6,500 thousand buy contracts (longs) and closed 4,600 thousand sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position of professional traders has increased by 11,000 contracts. Considering the fact that the total number of contracts for the "non-commercial" group before the current changes was about 100,000, then 11,000 contracts for changing the net position is a lot. Most importantly, non-commercial traders have become more bullish. Consequently, the pound can continue to rise in the long term. The indicators also show a very high probability of succeeding growth. The green and red lines, which represent the net positions of the non-commercial and commercial groups, continue to move away from each other, which indicates a strengthening trend. Professional traders believe in the pound despite the fact that no growth factors for this currency come from the UK.
No major report or event scheduled for Monday in the UK. However, last week there were several quite interesting events in Great Britain, 90% of which were ignored. We can say that the report on GDP in the fourth quarter, which unexpectedly turned out to be better than forecasted, was the only report that provided additional support to the pound. Support that it doesn't really need.
No important events planned in both the US and the UK on Tuesday, only minor ones. Thus, traders will have to trade exclusively on technical factors again, which is probably a good thing, since nothing will interfere with technical analysis. No third party factors.
We have two trading ideas for February 16:
1) The price quickly completed the correction. You are advised to open new long positions when the price settles above the 1.3917 level while aiming for the resistance level of 1.3984. Take Profit in this case will be up to 55 points. You can also consider opening longs with targets at 1.3917 and 1.3984 if a rebound from the Kijun-sen line (1.3838) or an upward trend line occurs.
2) Sellers tried to start a downward trend last week, but they were quickly revived by buyers, who took the initiative into their own hands again. The trend line has been rebuilt and is now supporting the bulls again. Thus, you are advised to sell the pound/dollar pair if the price settles below the trend line while aiming for 1.3745. Take Profit in this case will be up to 80 points.
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
