EUR/USD – 1H.
On February 15, the EUR/USD pair made an increase to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2151) and a new rebound from it. Thus, the pair also performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and may continue the process of falling in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.2104). Closing the pair's rate under the upward trend corridor will significantly increase the probability of a further fall of the pair. Closing quotes above the level of 50.0% will work in favor of further growth of the euro currency in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2197). Meanwhile, new dissatisfaction with the government is brewing in the European Union. Many believe that the leaders of the European Union made a mistake with the timing of orders of vaccines against COVID, and with the volumes, and with the methods of distribution and orders. The European Union began placing orders for vaccines in November, while Japan and the United Kingdom - in the summer of 2020. The EU has decided to buy vaccines for all 27 countries together and then distribute them independently. Many experts say that it would be much more efficient if each country formed its orders. At first, this would lead to increased competition and increased costs, but in the future, it would encourage the creation of vaccines in large volumes. Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, is personally blamed for the failure. There is also the matter of money. The pandemic consumes billions of euro currencies every week. If the EU ordered vaccines not only from two manufacturers but from all six, it would have to spend about 29 billion euros (for two-thirds of the population of the entire European Union). However, in this case, there would be no shortage of vaccine, there would be no delays in deliveries, and various delays that cost money and human lives. Thus, in some countries that are now suffering because of the mistakes of the European Commission, displeasure is beginning to grow. Let me remind you that once upon a time, the Brexit process began with such displeasure.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes completed a close above the descending trend line, so the mood of traders changed to "bullish". Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the level of 1.2204. The bullish divergence of the CCI indicator also worked in favor of the European currency and increased the chances of continued growth.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor, but it turned out to be false. Therefore, at the moment, the pair has performed a reversal in favor of the EU currency and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On February 15, the European Union released a report on changes in industrial production, which failed to force traders to trade more actively. Trading on Monday was very sluggish.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - index of business sentiment ZEW economic sentiment (10:00 GMT).
EU - change in the volume of GDP (10:00 GMT).
On February 16, the report on the change in the volume of GDP in the European Union in the fourth quarter will be released. And this report can move the euro/dollar pair. In recent days, the movement is very weak.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released. And it turned out to be much calmer than the previous one. The "Non-commercial" category of traders, which I consider the most important, opened 4,722 long contracts and got rid of 2,606 short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators again became more "bullish". Accordingly, the prospects of the European currency are improving again after the report of a week ago, when speculators got rid of 23 thousand long contracts and many believed that this upward trend would be completed. However, I warned that this behavior of large players may be an accident. It is still too early to talk about the end of the upward trend. In total, during the last reporting week, all categories of players closed approximately 11 thousand contract positions. Consequently, interest in the euro currency has decreased slightly.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to buy the euro currency with the targets of 1.2151 and 1.2197 on the hourly chart when closing quotes above the descending trend line on the 4-hour chart. The first goal was achieved. I recommend new purchases of the euro at the close above the level of 1.2151. I recommend selling when closing quotes under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2104 and 1.2046.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
