EUR/USD – 1H.
On February 22, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process and completed a close above the downward trend line. Thus, the mood of traders is now characterized as "bullish", and the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.2197). The information background on Monday was quite weak. No economic reports were released, however, there was a speech by Christine Lagarde in the European Parliament. The ECB chairwoman said that the PEPP emergency program continues to support all sectors of the economy, maintaining a good level of funding in times of a pandemic. But the IMF and its head Kristalina Georgieva just noted in an interview the actions of the European Central Bank and its head Christine Lagarde. Georgieva noted that the IMF provided more than $ 105 billion in funding to 85 countries during the pandemic. Georgieva said that 2020 was the worst year in peacetime, however, "it could have been much worse". She noted that the timely response to the pandemic and the crisis on the part of Christine Lagarde allowed us to avoid a much more negative scenario. She pointed to the ECB's three trillion euro program to save jobs and help households. The IMF also forecasts global economic growth of 5.5 % in 2021, and the growth of the European Union - by 4.2%. The European currency, meanwhile, is again in demand among traders. The pound is also growing. Thus, it is better to say that the US currency has again come under pressure from traders. Thus, the long-term upward trends that are visible on the older charts are preserved.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes, after rebounding from the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027) and the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator, continue the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.2204. The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of 1.2027. Closing the pair's rate above the level of 1.2204 will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.2353).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed the second breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor and also false. Therefore, at the moment, the pair still retains the chances of continuing the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). Closing under the corridor will allow you to count on a long drop in quotes.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On February 22, Christine Lagarde gave a speech in the European Union, however, there were no interesting economic events in America. In general, the information background was very weak yesterday.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - index of consumer prices (10:00 GMT).
US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (15:00 GMT).
On February 23, an important inflation report will be released in the European Union, and Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech in the United States. Thus, today the information background promises to be much stronger than yesterday.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, the next COT report was released and for the second week in a row, it turns out to be very calm. If a week earlier the "Non-commercial" category of traders increased long contracts and got rid of short contracts, but in small quantities, then in the last week they increased both long and short contracts, but in even smaller quantities. A total of 2,537 long contracts and 1,284 short contracts were opened. Thus, the mood of the major players became only slightly more "bullish". On the other hand, it has not become more "bearish", which means that the prospects for the European currency remain wonderful. In general, during the last reporting week, more short contracts were opened, but we are more interested in the data on the group of speculators.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Sales of the pair are recommended when closing quotes under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2046. It was recommended to buy the pair in the case of closing quotes above the trend line on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2151 and 1.2197. The first of them has already been achieved. Now we are waiting for the second one.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
