4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.
CCI: -64.6668
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement for most of the past day. And the longer it goes on, the more doubts that it will last for a long time. In March of last year, the pair's quotes already fell by 800 points, however, this movement ended very quickly. Because too strong movements that pass without corrections and rollbacks do not last long. Therefore, we continue to believe that the current strengthening of the US currency is a crackdown before a new prolonged fall of this currency. Recall that the fundamental background for the US dollar has not changed in the last few days. The global fundamentals that have weighed on the US currency over the past 11 months have remained the same. There have been no major improvements in the fundamental background in the last few days. In principle, no special changes have occurred in recent days. Thus, there were simply no objective reasons for such a strong drop in the pair's quotes. Therefore, in the near future, this movement may end, and the markets will begin to "pay off debts" to the euro currency. Recall that at this time, the US Congress is at the stage of final approval of the package of incentives from Joe Biden totaling $ 1.9 trillion. Thus, the new almost 2 trillion and the old 1 trillion (not lost from the previous program of support for the economy) should pour into the American economy in the coming months. Therefore, we expect a new prolonged fall in the US currency, since it is this factor of changes in the volume of money supply in the EU and the US that seems to have played the most important role in exchange rate formation over the past year.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the former president of the United States, has already moved away from the defeat in the election and the second attempt of the Democrats to impeach him and entered the arena with the same strategy that we warned about last year. Since Trump has already indicated several times his desire to use the opportunity to hold the post of president of the country for two terms, he will almost definitely run for the Republican Party in 2024. As we said earlier, recent polls and research have shown that Trump's popularity among Republicans has not declined. We have already said that even if Trump is not liked in the party, this is not a reason to abandon a politician for whom 70 million Americans voted. Trump himself, to return to the presidency in 2024, must now fulfill Joe Biden. This means that to become president, Joe Biden did not have to do anything supernatural. He just needed to criticize the huge number of mistakes made by Trump. Now, Trump himself will be engaged in a similar activity. However, if in the case of criticism of Joe Biden, mistakes on the part of the president took place, then in the case of criticism from Donald Trump, mistakes will have to be mostly invented. It should be recalled that Trump is not a politician, he is a businessman. Therefore, he led the country as his own private business, which led to very sad consequences and the loss in the 2020 elections. Joe Biden may be a bad president, however, he is still a politician and has been in politics for several decades. Therefore, it is unlikely that he will make even half of the number of mistakes that Trump made. It should also be remembered that Biden was the vice president of the country for 8 years under Barack Obama. That is, he was "almost president" for 8 years. He saw and clearly understood the whole background of this position from the first row. Thus, we believe that Biden's results as president will be much better than Trump's. But Trump needs the opposite result. He needs to constantly criticize Biden and show the whole of America that he was the right president. But how do you do that if Biden doesn't make mistakes (at least not yet)? Naturally, with the help of Trump's favorite weapon – unsubstantiated statements and outright lies. Remember how the US president promised to present evidence of election fraud within a week? He was then echoed by Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo. Do you remember how much talk there was about the indisputable evidence of China's guilt in an almost special release on the will of the "coronavirus"? Trump constantly blames everyone and never provides evidence. Therefore, this time everything can be according to the old scheme. Trump has already begun to implement it. "We all knew that the Biden administration would be bad, but no one imagined how bad it would be and how far to the left it would go. Joe Biden has had a disastrous first month of any president in modern history, it's true. His administration has proven that it is against jobs, families, energy, women, science," Trump said, which immediately raised several questions:
1) Who are "we"?
2) Where did the Biden administration go (to the left)?
3) Based on what indicators is Joe Biden considered the worst president in history, looking at the first month?
4) Why is the administration against jobs, women, energy, and science?
Naturally, all these questions will remain unanswered. Trump also said that in just one month of Joe Biden's presidency, America has shifted from first place to last place within the priorities of the head of state. "Joe Biden has brought us back into the very unfair and costly Paris Climate Agreement. What is the use of this when we use clean energy resources?", asks Donald Trump.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of March 3 is 89 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1990 and 1.2168. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down may signal a new round of downward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2024
S2 – 1.1963
S3 – 1.1902
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2085
R2 – 1.2146
R3 – 1.2207
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair has started an upward correction. Thus, today it is recommended to open new short positions with targets of 1.2024 and 1.1990 in the event of a reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down or a rebound of the price from the moving average. It is recommended to consider buy orders if the pair is fixed above the moving average with targets of 1.2146 and 1.2168.
