The vaccination rate in the EU is accelerating.
Hi everyone!
Yesterday, the US dollar exhibited strength across the board. The EUR/USD pair fell below the important level of 1.1900 and ended trading on Monday at 1.1845. I will give a more detailed technical analysis of this pair a bit later. In this analysis, we will briefly talk about the news releases from different countries and expected macroeconomic events.
The news about the COVID-19 pandemic came under the spotlight of investors again. In the United States, the epidemiological situation remains out of control and the number of daily new cases and deaths is still quite high. At the same time, the US government is actively vaccinating the population. So, the US authorities believe that in the near future, Americans will develop a sufficiently high herd immunity in order to stop the spread of the coronavirus. In turn, the EU government is also increasing the pace of vaccination. Notably, the initial plan to vaccinate more EU citizens failed. The epidemiological situation in a number of European countries remains quite worrying. So, Italy became the first European country where the total number of deaths from COVID-19 exceeded 100,000. No wonder, many EU citizens experience despair, irritation, fatigue, and other similar feelings. They are already quite tired of all kinds of quarantine restrictions that hinder their normal lifestyle. Yet, there is nothing to be done. In order to curb the spread of the coronavirus, lockdowns and various restrictive measures should stay in effect.
Today's economic calendar contains quite important macroeconomic events. The most crucial one for the euro/dollar pair will be the publication of the final data on the EU GDP. It will be unveiled at 13:00 Moscow time. The economic calendar for the US is bereft of any important economic reports.
Daily
At the beginning of the article, I mentioned that on Monday, the euro/dollar pair significantly declined. My forecast about the downward scenario in case the pair would reach the range of 1.1830-1.1800 was almost fully justified. The quote fell slightly short of the indicated area, reaching the low of 1.1843, its lowest level on March 8. Yet, the pair hit the levels of 1.1900 and 1.1875. At the moment of completing this analysis, the EU /USD pair was correcting upwards, trading near the strong technical level of 1.1880. When the pair rises to the area of 1.1900-1.1930, it may face strong resistance and retreat. If so, it will drop to 1.1822-1.1800 where the orange 200 exponential moving average runs and the significant level of 1.1800 is located.
H1
In order to move on to the trading recommendations, let us look at the hourly chart of EUR/USD. I stretched the grid of the Fibonacci tool for a fall of 1.2112-1.1835. As you can see, currently, the pair is approaching a 50-day simple moving average and the Fibonacci level of 23.6 from the indicated decline. I assume that short deals for the euro/dollar pair should be considered from the price zone of 1.1890-1.1905. The signal for opening short positions will be the appearance of particular candlestick patterns in this zone on the or four-hour charts. It is recommended to open short positions at more favorable prices near 1.1930. This level is quite strong when it comes to technical indicators. There is also a black 89 exponential moving average there. It is also recommended to refrain from opening long trades. Given the corrective upward movement, it is better to open positions along with the trend that is currently a downward one.
Good luck!
