The EUR/USD pair is trading in the green at 1.0521 on the H1 chart. The price action signaled exhausted sellers but the bias remains bearish. The pair tries to recover only because the Dollar Index retreated a little. Today, the US and Eurozone data could drive the price, that's why you have to be careful.
The German Prelim GDP is expected to register a 0.2% growth in Q1 versus a 0.3% drop in the previous reporting period, the Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate could report a 7.5% growth, while the Prelim Flash GDP may report a 0.3% increase.
On the other hand, the US Core PCE Price Index could register a 0.3% growth, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to grow from 65.7 to 65.8 points, while the Chicago PMI could be reported at 62.1 points below 62.9 in the previous reporting period.
EUR/USD Down Channel Intact!
As you can see on the H1 chart, EUR/USD is still trapped within the down channel. It could drop again as long as it stays under the downtrend line. 1.0480 - 1.0471 stands as a support zone. After its massive drop, a temporary rebound is in cards. Still, only a valid breakout above the downtrend line could signal potential growth.
Only false breakouts through the downtrend line may signal a new sell-off. From the technical point of view, after registering only a false breakdown below the lower median line (lml), EUR/USD signaled an oversold situation.
EUR/USD Forecast!
Making a valid breakout above the downtrend line, jumping, closing, and stabilizing above it may signal potential growth towards the median line (ml). Coming back to test and retest the median line (ml) could bring new short opportunities.
A larger downside movement could be activated by a valid breakdown below 1.0471.
