EUR/USD – 1H.
On March 15, the EUR/USD pair tried to continue falling after it made a consolidation under the upward trend corridor. However, this fall ended near the previous low, and the pair has been moving exclusively sideways for the last 20 hours. Thus, I can say that on Monday, traders were trading the pair rather sluggishly. Consequently, the information background was unconvincing and did not interest traders. By the way, it should be noted that the information background was really weak. There were no economic reports during the day in either the US or Europe. There were no important speeches, no important political news, and so on. Even on the recently sensational topic of the yield of 10-year treasuries in the United States, there was no reaction from traders. Thus, now traders are waiting for new information that will allow them to open new trades. It is unlikely that they will wait for it today when the calendar of economic events is again empty. Accordingly, today traders may be impressed by the topic of failed vaccination in the European Union, although the euro currency has already fallen in price in the first two and a half months of 2021, and is also preparing for the Fed meeting this week, which will take place tomorrow. Some analysts believe that Jerome Powell will announce an increase in the growth rate of the US economy, but at the same time, the monetary policy itself is likely to remain unchanged. Thus, the key event of the week will not be the Fed meeting, but the speech of Jerome Powell. No less important will be tomorrow's report on inflation in the European Union. Let me remind you that all the major central banks in the world are aiming for 2% inflation, and the growth in bond yields in the EU and the US suggests that inflation will jump up in the near future. European inflation forecast for Wednesday is 1.1% y/y.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, after the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator, the quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and continue the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). Fixing the pair's exchange rate above the level of 161.8% (1.2027) will work in favor of the euro and resume the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.2223.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the upward trend corridor, so the mood on the traffic was "bearish". The descending trend line confirms this. Fixing the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 261.8% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.1566).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 15, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and America were empty, so the influence of the information background was absent on this day.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - index of business sentiment from the ZEW Institute (10:00 GMT).
US - retail trade volume change (12:30 GMT).
US - change in industrial production (13:15 GMT).
On March 16, in the US, you can pay attention to both reports, but the last similar reports were ignored by traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, the next COT report was released and for the second week in a row, it turns out to be quite aggressive. This time, the "Non-commercial" category of traders reduced 14,000 long contracts on their hands and opened 12,000 new short contracts. It follows that the mood of speculators has become much more "bearish". Consequently, the chances of a further fall in the euro currency quotes are growing. Other categories of traders are of much less concern to us since it is speculators who set the tone of trading.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to sell the pair again at the closing of quotes under the ascending corridor with a target of 1.1873 on the hourly chart. These transactions should now be kept open. I recommend buying the pair when closing above the level of 100.0% (1.1952) on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2021 and 1.2063.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
