EUR/USD
So the Fed meeting, eagerly awaited by investors, took place. As expected, the US central bank did not give hints of policy changes in the near future, without even touching on the issue of growth in government bond yields, which, however, have not grown for a week. But the FOMC significantly improved its forecasts for the economy, which sharply increased the growth of risk appetite and on these sentiments the dollar fell by 0.49%. The euro showed an increase of 78 points. The GDP forecast for the current year has been changed from 4.2% to 6.5%, the committee expects unemployment by the end of the year at 4.5%, but the most surprising thing is that the Federal Reserve is confident in controlling inflation - an increase to 2.4% in this year and decline to 2.0% in the future. Obviously, this is the main reason (more precisely, the reason) for keeping the rate at the lowest level until 2023, as it was expected earlier.
The price reached the upper border of the free-swing range (1.1990) on the daily chart, while the Marlin oscillator reached the border of the rising trend zone. We doubt the development of yesterday's momentum, because the Fed's forecasts maintain an increased investment demand for the dollar both in the interests of carry-trade operations and an increased supply of bonds by the US Treasury against large-scale government spending.
The situation shows growth on the four-hour chart - the price is above the indicator lines, while Marlin is in the growth area. We do not expect a one-time price reversal to the downside, we should wait for the market to cool and the price to fall to its original positions, that is, to the area of the 1.1910 level. This decline may take two days, which means that it will only be possible to start selling the euro on Monday.
