EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair was trading quite calmly for such a turbulent day from a fundamental point of view. Recall that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde had two speeches for the day, a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and a more or less significant report on claims for unemployment benefits in the United States. All these events are marked with numbers in the chart to assess the impact on the euro/dollar pair's movement. But it all started, as usual, with a flat in the evening. Although this time the flat was not quite flat. The pair moved quite actively in the evening, but we deliberately do not analyze the signals that were formed at night, since it is not recommended to trade at night. Thus, the first signal was formed at the very beginning of the European session - a rebound from the extremum level of 1.1988. Of course, you can also consider surpassing the Senkou Span B line from the bottom up, but even in this case, everything is accurate, since the 1.1988 target was close, but it was reached. After rebounding from 1.1988, quotes began to fall, which eventually ended near the Kijun-sen line, which ran at the 1.1935 level. Thus, traders could earn about 35 points on this signal. Further, two rebounds occurred from the Kijun-sen line, which could be interpreted as buy signals. They turned out to be false, since the upward movement did not start. It was at this time that Lagarde made speeches in the European Union, who said that according to the results of the first quarter, GDP is likely to decline again (a negative was also recorded in the fourth quarter). Such optimism did not delight traders, and they went back to selling the euro, which resulted in surpassing the critical line and falling to the extreme level of 1.1911. Thus, traders could earn another 15 points on this trade. This was followed by a rebound from 1.1911, which should be interpreted as a buy signal and again the nearest target - the Kijun-sen line - was reached, bringing traders another 15 points of profit. A new rebound from the critical line pushed the pair to fall to 1.1911 - another 15 points of profit. Note that all lines and levels were worked out almost perfectly on Thursday.
EUR/USD 1H
We also see that the lines and levels are perfectly worked out on the hourly timeframe. As a result, the trading day ended near 1.1911, from which it will be possible to start trading on Friday morning. No macroeconomic report or event on Friday, therefore, the influence of the foundation and macroeconomics will most likely be absent today. Therefore, nothing should hinder trading on technical signals. The only thing is that a flat may start, so this moment should be carefully monitored. A lot of false signals can be formed in a flat. In general, you should still trade from important levels and lines that are plotted on the hourly timeframe. The nearest levels are 1.1911 and 1.1935 (Kijun-sen). Signals can be rebounds and when levels and lines are surpassed. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction.
COT report
Recall that the EUR/USD pair fell by 200 points during the last reporting week (March 2-8), which is quite a lot for it. However, in general, even with such a fall, the upward trend is still visible to the naked eye. Thus, so far, there is still no need to talk about an unambiguous change in the trend to a downward one on a global scale. Let us remind you that in recent weeks the mood of major market players has become much more bearish, as the total number of buy contracts (longs) decreased by 20,000, and sell contracts (shorts) increased by 30,000. If earlier there was a threefold difference between these figures, now it is already two times with an advantage of the former. In other words, over the past five weeks, professional traders have begun to believe less that the euro's growth will continue. As for the reporting week, the "non-commercial" group of traders continued the trend of the last weeks. Major players closed 14,000 buy contracts and opened 12,000 sell contracts during this week. Thus, the net position for this group of traders increased immediately by 26,000, and the mood of the group became much more bearish. The latest COT reports speak almost unambiguously in favor of the market sentiment changing to a downward one. Indicators also signal a very likely reversal of the previous trend, as the green and red lines of the first indicator continue to move towards each other. From our point of view, only one global factor can prevent this - this is the factor of a new potential growth of the money supply in the United States by $2 trillion.
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
