GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair closed at the level of 61.8% (1.3820) and continue the process of falling now in the direction of the level of 1.3625. A downward trend corridor was formed, which characterizes the current mood of traders as "bearish". The US currency showed growth against all its major competitors over the past day. The information background, judging by the calendar, was very interesting yesterday. However, in practice, everything turned out to be different. Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, and Andrew Bailey did not say anything in their speeches that could affect the mood of traders. The fall in the British dollar began at night and persisted for most of the day. During the day, there were no sharp reversals that are typical for important news or events. Thus, I am inclined to believe that the fall in the pair's quotes was caused by other factors and reasons. The fact is that now all the attention of traders is focused on the vaccination crisis in the European Union (but it can not simultaneously negatively affect both the euro and the pound) and on the aid packages for the American economy, one of which has been approved and has already begun its implementation, and the second can be approved by the summer of this year. Thus, another $ 5 trillion can be spent on post-pandemic recovery. However, again, it is impossible to make a clear conclusion that the growth of the dollar is associated with these factors. Thus, it is possible that the reasons for the growth of the dollar, which in 2021 is strengthening well against the European and the British, lie in a completely different way.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the level of 161.8% (1.3979) and the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator, performed a fall to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3701). The rebound of the pair's quotes from this level will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the British dollar and some growth in the direction of the level of 1.3850. Closing quotes below the level of 127.2% will work in favor of a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3481).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a fall to the ascending trend line. In the long term, the "bullish" mood of traders is still preserved. The rebound of quotes from the trend line will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the British dollar and a resumption of growth.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Tuesday, the UK released reports on the unemployment rate, average wages, and applications for unemployment benefits. There were also several important performances. The dollar is growing both against the pound and against the euro. Thus, the British statistics, most likely, did not have any impact on the movement of the pair.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - consumer price index (07:00 GMT).
UK - manufacturing PMI (09:30 GMT).
UK - PMI index for the services sector (09:30 GMT).
US - change in the volume of orders for long-term goods (12:30 GMT).
US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (13:45 GMT).
US - PMI index for the service sector (13:45 GMT).
US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (14:00 GMT).
On Wednesday, the calendars of economic events in the United States and Britain are once again bursting with important information. Today, the activity of traders can be very high.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report of March 16 on the British pound was just as discouraging as on the euro. The "Non-commercial" category of traders behaved much more modestly and closed only 6.2 thousand long contracts. But the category of "Commercial" traders got rid of 23 thousand long contracts and 27 thousand short contracts. Thus, in total, the British lost approximately 30-33 thousand contracts of both types. Such a sharp drop in activity, by the way, did not affect the chart of the pair in any way. I can only conclude that the "bullish" mood of traders has weakened even more recently. However, the number of purchases in the hands of speculators is still twice as large as the number of sales.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend buying the British dollar today in the event of a rebound of quotes from the level of 1.3701 on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.3820 and 1.3900. It is recommended to sell the pound at close under 1.3701 with the targets of 1.3625 and 1.3560.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
