4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.
CCI: -148.1616
The EUR/USD currency pair on Thursday, March 25, continued a not too strong and unhurried downward movement. After the bulls did not submit to the level of 1.1980 twice, the downward movement resumed, which is completely logical and justified at this time. We remind you that over the past year, the European currency has strengthened quite strongly against the US dollar, so the current downward movement may be just a banal correction in global terms. This movement is exactly a correction if we consider the 24-hour timeframe. A downward trend has formed on the 4-hour timeframe. Both linear regression channels are directed downwards, the price is located below the moving average line. Thus, as we have repeatedly said, the US dollar may well grow for some time. However, in general, its prospects remain rather vague. All because of the exorbitant amounts that the US government is pouring into its economy. It is pouring in and is going to pour in further, throughout 2021, thereby inflating the national debt. Thus, at the moment, market participants should decide for themselves what is more important: the fact of a rapid recovery of the American economy (much faster than in the European Union) or the fact of pumping the American economy with trillions of dollars? We believe that the second factor is more important, however, we also remind you that any fundamental hypothesis requires technical confirmation. Therefore, until an upward trend is formed in technical terms, it is not recommended to buy the euro/dollar pair in the medium and long term. It should also be taken into account that a certain part of the trillions of dollars that stimulated the US economy settled under the pillows of ordinary Americans, and a certain part was invested in various assets. Experts believe that the United States has accumulated a huge pent-up demand and when it starts to be realized, inflation will start to rise. And along with inflation, the US currency may collapse.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to regularly hand out comments and interviews, also continues to criticize the current President, Joe Biden. Trump has already said that he is very worried about whether Biden understands what documents he is signing, alluding to the case when the current US president tripped three times while boarding plane number 1. Trump also recalled "his brainchild" - the wall on the border with Mexico. He accused Biden of creating a crisis. According to Trump, Biden's team should have continued to use the "well-established mechanism under him", but the new president turned "the most reliable border in history" into a "national disaster" in just a few weeks. Also, the former head of the White House believes that the current authorities are doing everything to carefully mask the problems at the border, however, they are still visible "to the naked eye". "The only way to put an end to the Biden crisis on the border is to admit its complete failure and take advantage of effective and proven Trump's measures," Trump himself said. The former American leader also called for the completion of the wall on the border with Mexico as soon as possible. Trump believes that the failure at the border leads to unprecedented levels of smuggling and sexual exploitation of people. "Our country is being destroyed," Donald said. Thus, Trump continues to go exactly the way we talked about a couple of months ago. The former US president now needs the next four years to criticize Biden, all his actions, and the results of his work. However, there is not much to criticize yet, so Trump makes fun of his older opponent and also accuses him of such things, for which there is no evidence.
Meanwhile, the former US president did not forget to do "work on mistakes". At least, that's what he thinks. And Trump believes that the reason for his failure as president of the United States was not China or the pandemic, but social networks. Recall that Trump is the first president in the history of the country who openly bet on communicating with the people through social networks. Naturally, this "communication with the people" was created not to inform Americans about political and legislative changes, but to promote their own opinions to the masses as effectively as possible. However, the two largest US social networks Twitter and Facebook eventually began to mark messages from Trump as unreliable, and after the events of January 6, 2021, near the Capitol, they completely blocked the president forever. Thus, Trump decided to create his social network. The media reports that Donald is currently in talks with mobile app developers to create his social network. The companies, which are allegedly in talks with the former president, declined to comment on this information. So in four years, we may see the return of Donald Trump with his social network called "Trumpbook". This is a joke, however, the name of the new social network may be pretentious. Now Trump can only get his TV channel and publishing house, which will promote his interests, and we can assume that Trump will come fully armed for the next presidential election.
In the shorter term, there have already been two speeches by Janet Yellen, two by Jerome Powell, and two by Christine Lagarde this week. Nothing was interesting in these speeches, all the functionaries simply repeated the information that had been known to the markets for a long time. The yield on US Treasury bonds also began to fall. Thus, everyone who believed in the strengthening of the US dollar based on the growth of this indicator can now see that this is not the case.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of March 26 is 66 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1706 and 1.1839. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will signal a new round of upward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1780
S2 – 1.1719
S3 – 1.1658
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1841
R2 – 1.1902
R3 – 1.1963
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in short positions with targets of 1.1719 and 1.1706 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to consider buy orders if the pair is fixed back above the moving average with a target of 1.1963.
