The wave counting on the 4-hour chart nevertheless took on a more non-standard form, since the markets failed to overcome the 50.0% Fibonacci level. However, after making small adjustments, the wave counting still looks quite understandable. At the moment, the construction of the proposed wave e on a global scale is continuing. I have mentioned in previous articles that this wave can complete its construction near the 76.4% Fibonacci level. At the moment, it looks like this wave is really complete. Firstly, it has taken on a quite commensurate form with the previous waves of the downward trend, which began at the beginning of the year. Secondly, three internal waves are clearly visible inside this wave, and, let me remind you, all waves of the highest scale of the current trend segment are three-wave. Thus, I believe that there is a high probability of completion of the construction of wave e and the entire downward trend. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 76.4% level indirectly supports this option. If the breakout of this mark still happens, then the decline in quotes may continue, but this will not have a strong impact on the current wave counting, only wave e will lengthen slightly.
Meanwhile, the European Union has come under a barrage of criticism for its decision to restrict the export of vaccines outside its territory. According to the EU authorities, they first need to provide themselves with vaccines before they proceed to export to other countries. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has already said that the EU is not ready to help developing countries now. The authorities also want to restrict the sale of vaccines by European companies outside the European Union. Naturally, this decision was not liked primarily by the UK, which will fall under this restriction, as it has large supply contracts with AstraZeneca. This also gained criticism from other prominent politicians. For example, the former president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, gave a long interview in which he criticized the current authorities in the EU, saying that their actions contribute to the emergence of inequality in free trade, jeopardizing the reputation of the alliance. Juncker also flattered the UK, which copes with vaccination much better. However, the EU authorities, by and large, did not do anything. The vaccination process is progressing very slowly, there is a serious shortage of the vaccine, many EU countries are asking for approval of the use of Russian or Chinese vaccines and allow them to purchase. Naturally, the EU countries and the EU authorities are also criticized. In general, the situation is tense, especially against the background of serious threats of the beginning of the third wave of the epidemic.
Based on the analysis, I recommend closing sales now, at least until the breakout of the 76.4% Fibonacci level. If this breakout happens, it will be possible to sell the instrument again with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1602, which is equal to 100.0% Fibonacci. Until then, I recommend looking closely at purchases with the expectation of building a new, at least three-wave section of the trend.
The wave counting of the upward trend section is still quite complete, in a five-wave form, and is not going to get complicated yet. But the part of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes on a rather complex form. The instrument is likely to build alternating corrective structures for some time. Supposed wave d turned out to be shortened, therefore the construction of the supposed wave e continues.
