EUR/USD – 1H.
During the last trading day, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the level of 1.1715, reversed in favor of the European currency, and increased to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.1772) and the upper border of the downward trend corridor. The rebound of quotes from this border will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the level of 1.1715. Closing above the corridor will change the mood of traders to "bullish". Yesterday was again quite favorable for the US currency. Although there were a small number of reports during the day. Nevertheless, the ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector again turned out to be better than traders' expectations and amounted to as much as 64.7 points, which is the highest in recent decades. Thus, this indicator indirectly pointed to the high rate of recovery of the American economy. However, few people doubt that this is the case.
In the European Union, business activity in manufacturing was also on top. The index was 62.5 and also exceeded the expectations of traders. A slightly disappointing report on applications for unemployment benefits among the American population, which exceeded expectations by literally several tens of thousands. However, in general, I would say that both in Europe and in the US, the statistics are not disappointing, however, it was stronger in the US. However, traders have had enough of buying the US currency in recent days. Therefore, profit-taking on short contracts continued, which led to a fall in the US dollar and the growth of the euro/dollar pair. Today is an important day for the Americans, as the Nonfarm Payrolls report in the United States will be released, which will show how many new jobs were created outside the agricultural sector in March. The forecast is very high – 633,000.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes consolidated under the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729), however, the fall was quickly replaced by the process of growth. At the moment, the increase continued in the direction of the level of 1.1836. I recommend paying more attention now to the hourly chart with its trend corridor.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair consolidated under the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822). Thus, the fall can now be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1566). The general mood of traders remains "bearish".
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 1, the European Union and the United States published business activity indices for the manufacturing sector, which did not affect the mood of traders too much.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - unemployment rate (12:30 UTC).
US - change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (12:30 UTC).
US - change in the average hourly wage (12:30 UTC).
On April 2, the calendar of economic events in the European Union will be empty. But in the US, several very important reports will be released at once, so the information background will be strong.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be much calmer this time. The Non-commercial category of traders got rid of 1,766 long contracts and 953 short contracts during the reporting week. The numbers are very small, so I would say that there is almost no change. In general, over the past month, bull traders have strongly lost their positions, as a large number of long contracts were closed and short contracts were opened. If at the beginning of February the gap between the number of long and short contracts was threefold, at the moment it is less than twofold.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair with the targets of 1.1715 and 1.1661 if the rebound from the upper limit of the downward corridor is performed on the hourly chart. It is recommended to buy the pair with the targets of 1.1820 and 1.1873 if traders manage to close above the downward trend corridor on the hourly chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
