Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair completed an upward correction last Friday, which began on Wednesday. The upward momentum had practically dried up during the night trading, and the markets were unable to find new reasons for buying. The quotes of the euro/dollar pair were strictly moving sideways for half of the day, there was a slight surge of emotions in the afternoon, but everything very quickly ended with the same flat. And this is an eloquent picture of how the markets are reacting to macroeconomic reports at this time. Some reports are really being worked out, but traders pass by most of them. The most important reports on unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls were published in America last Friday. However, the market's response was just a movement by 30 points, and in different directions too. On the one hand, this may mean that the US dollar has lost its strength and will no longer be able to grow, as it did in the first three months of 2021. On the other hand, it might just be a coincidence. One way or another, important reports were ignored. One signal was formed during the day - a sell signal, which could be worked out. This is a rebound off the downward trend line. After it was formed, the pair went down by an unrealistic 20 points, which was exactly enough for novice traders to have time to set Stop Loss to breakeven and not get losses on this deal. After a couple of hours, the market finally calmed down. The daily volatility was 40 points, so it was very difficult to make money in such a market.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Now let's take a look at the 5 minute timeframe. Everything was calm in the beginning, and also ended the same way. Overnight trading and the European trading session were completely flat. There was only a slight surge of emotions at the very beginning of the US session due to reports on unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls in the United States. Unemployment in March fell to 6.0%, and the number of new jobs created increased by 916,000, although forecasts predicted an increase of only 652,000, which is also a lot. In theory, the market should have responded with massive long positions on the dollar, but this did not happen. From the signals, one can single out when the quote had surpassed 1.1760, which at the moment is no longer considered relevant (marked with a dotted line), since the price crossed it several times on Friday. Around the same time, a rebound from the trend line was formed on the hourly timeframe, so in both cases it was possible to open short positions that would not bring any profit. The price did not approach other important levels during the day, so no other signals were generated.
How to trade on Monday:
We recommend trading on the 30-minute sell timeframe on Monday, as the downward trend continues. However, we draw your attention to the US reports that were ignored, which may be an indirect sign that the trend has ended for the dollar. Thus, we would wait for the trend line to be broken on Monday-Tuesday and for a buy signal to form. An important index of business activity in the US services ISM will also be released on Monday. It can provoke a reaction, but after Friday, no one can really be certain anymore. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. The levels 1.1746 and 1.1786 can be identified on the 5-minute timeframe, from which rebounds or breaks can occur. As before, the main thing is that the signal is clear. If the signal is not clear, then it is better not to enter the market.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
