EUR/USD
The euro gained 51 points in yesterday's US session. In related markets, government bond yields declined, stock indices rose (S&P 500 1.44%), while oil prices fell (-4.0%). So far, it seems that the dollar is more sensitive to increased expectations of a rate hike following the strong employment data on Friday, rather than due to increased risk appetite. The ISM Service PMI for March showed an increase from 55.3 to 63.7 against the forecast of 58.3, but factory orders slipped by -0.8% against expectations of -0.5%. In the current situation, there is no risk of the euro reversal upward, visually it is still the same correction.
On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the triangle in the opposite direction to our expectations. Now the triangle is abolished and the double convergence remains, which carries the risk that the correction would reach the target level of 1.1950, the MACD indicator line is aiming for this level. But for this, Marlin must settle in the zone of positive values, the price must settle above the 1.1836 level - this is the March 9 low. The price rarely overcomes double convergences and divergences, creating a false signal, but now, with strong fundamental pressure on the euro, it can do so, so the best tactic today, and possibly tomorrow, will be to watch the market from the outside.
Nothing to add to what has been said on the four-hour chart. The price is above the indicator lines and, being at strong price levels, looks for market reasons for a reversal or continued growth.
