The wave picture for the Pound/Dollar instrument looks more convincing after making adjustments. The increase in quotes of the last days suggests that the downward trend section, which begins on February 24, has already been completed and has taken on a three-wave form. That is, on March 25, we could see the minimum of wave c, at which the decline in the instrument quotes will end. However, one should also not completely sweep aside the other option, in which wave 3 or c will receive a very extended, five-wave form. A retreat of quotes from the highs reached during the day may also mean the beginning of the construction of a wave 3 in 3 or c. If this assumption is correct, then the decline in quotes will continue with targets located below the minimum of wave 1 in 3 or c. At the moment, the internal wave structure of the proposed wave 2 in 3 or c looks like a three-wave structure, so the chances of building a new downward wave are increased.
The news background for the sterling on Monday was not too strong. Not a single report was released in the UK yesterday, and there was no news today. In America, the ISM business activity report was released yesterday, and its value turned out to be the highest in the last 25 years. However, the demand for the US currency did not increase, so there is no reason to assume that the markets paid attention to this report at all. But the demand for the dollar increased today, which led to a decrease in the Pound/Dollar instrument by 100 basis points. Now it only remains to understand whether this decline was caused by the current wave counting or the news background.
According to the latest data, the UK may restrict the use of the vaccine from the Swedish company AstraZeneca, which was developed jointly with the University of Oxford. It is reported that the restriction can only apply to young people. Over the past few weeks, there have been 30 cases of blood clots in the country, 7 of which were fatal after using the AstraZeneca vaccine. Previously, similar cases were also recorded in the EU countries, which led to the introduction of a ban on the use of the vaccine or some restrictions on its use.
At this time, I am still looking to the formation of a downward wave of 3 or c. Thus, I recommend resuming selling the instrument based on the signals of the MACD indicator "down" with targets located near the 35th figure. The second successful attempt to break through the 1.3872 mark, which equates to 23.6% Fibonacci, will most likely require adjustments and additions to the current wave counting and will cancel the option with a decline in instrument quotes.
The part of the trend, originating on September 23, has taken on a five-wave fully completed form. Thus, this section of the trend is presumably completed, and the decline in quotes may resume as part of the construction of a new downward section of the trend, the first two waves of which have already completed their construction. However, the descending part of the trend may turn out to be shortened, and in this case, it has already completed its construction.
