The spot rate is currently the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 125.70 suggesting a decline. However, a break of this level will initiate a violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide buy signals, but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in the short term.
The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 125.70 with the 1st objective at 125.10 and then at 124.90. A breakthrough of 125.90 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 125.70 with the 1st objective at 126.30 and then at 126.50. A breakthrough of 125.50 will invalidate this scenario.
