At the end of the last trading week, the Swiss franc showed the greatest strengthening against the US dollar, which amounted to 1.80%. Recently, the US currency has been trading extremely unevenly, showing either strengthening or weakening concerning its main competitors. This refers to weekly trading cycles. At the same time, the macroeconomic statistics from the United States, during periods of weakening of the dollar, can not be called completely failed, rather it is of a mixed nature. The situation with the COVID-19 pandemic has also not changed dramatically. In Europe, there is still a shortage of vaccines and, as a result, a rather slow rate of vaccination of the population. In the United States, this issue is much better. So why is the US dollar trading so unevenly in the foreign exchange market? And again, I am inclined to state that the technical picture for dollar pairs is decisive here. Let's consider this factor on the example of the dollar/franc currency pair and, taking into account the trading week that ended on Friday, let's start with the corresponding timeframe.
Weekly
After the appearance of a bullish candle with a particularly long upper shadow on the week before last, doubts crept in about the ability of the bulls for this instrument to continue the rise of the rate. As the auction of the last five days showed, these doubts were not unfounded. Here again, I would like to draw your attention to the consolidation of three candlesticks in a row after the closing. This time, the USD/CHF pair failed to close three consecutive weekly candles within the Ichimoku indicator cloud. After closing two candles, the third one flew down with a crash and closed under the lower border of the cloud. This factor indicates a false entry into the cloud and the inability to gain a foothold in it. I believe that if the price entered the limits of the cloud and gained a foothold in it, then there would be a continuation of the upward movement to the upper border of the cloud and an attempt to get out of it. In terms of fixing three candlesticks in a row above or below any level or line, a false breakdown of the sellers' resistance at 0.9295 can also be attributed.
As can be seen on the chart, only two weekly candles closed above this level, after which the pair returned to this level. That is, the same thing happened as with the attempts to consolidate within the Ichimoku cloud. And the last thing I would like to note on the weekly timeframe is a similar situation with the closing of only two candles in a row, above the black 89 exponential moving average. All these factors, as well as two candles, suggest that the USD/CHF pair will continue to decline, during which it will try to break through the strong technical and psychological level of 0.9200, slightly above which, at 0.9212, there is strong support. At the same time, given the presence of 50 MA below the mark of 0.9200, as well as the red Tenkan line and the blue Kijun line, a cloudless life is not guaranteed for players on the decline. With a high degree of probability, we can assume that there will be attempts to bounce and return above 0.9200 from the listed obstacles. In general, despite the high probability of a downward trend scenario, the level of 0.9200 is easy and unlikely to pass the first time.
Daily
On the daily chart, there is a classic candlestick analysis, when after the appearance of the circled candle for April 1, the "Shooting Star'' pair changed the trend from bullish to bearish. In principle, according to the Fibonacci grid, stretched to the growth of 0.8756-0.9471, this decline can be characterized as a correction. However, looking at the futile attempts of the USD/CHF bulls to seize the initiative from their opponents, the current downward dynamics of the dollar/franc pair seem to be a trend change. However, this is still just an assumption, since both on the weekly and daily timeframes below 0.9200, there are strong technical indicators that can change the situation. In particular, on the daily chart, this is the orange 200 EMA, as well as the 50 MA and 89 EMA, which can provide strong support and turn the course up. So far, at this stage of time, the main trading recommendation for USD/CHF is sales after rises to 0.9340, 0.9350, 0.9370, and 0.9380. If there are reversal bearish candles near these levels, I recommend selling the pair with targets in the area of 0.9225-0.9200.
