On the H4 chart, the wave pattern is still quite clear and understandable. Thus, there is no reason to make adjustments yet. The downward trend that started earlier this year seems to be done, so it can be considered complete. A successful attempt to break the 50.0% Fibonacci level will confirm this assumption. It should be pointed once again that the wave pattern should be as simple and understandable as possible, and also not ambiguous and require constant additions. And that is exactly what it is now. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 50.0% level may result in an exit from the reached highs, which may coincide with the beginning of the construction of a corrective wave 2 or b. At the moment, there is no sign of the beginning of a correction wave, that is, the first wave is still being formed. Moreover, even if the section of the trend that starts on March 31 takes a three-wave form, which will require adjustments to the entire downward section of the trend from January 6, these three waves must still be built first. There is only one wave up at the moment.
On another note, the news background for the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday was extremely interesting. Due to this, the pair continued the construction of the ascending wave. However, everything was boring on Wednesday. The day started with not a single economic report either in the US or in the EU, so the activity of the markets sharply fell again, and the instrument went from low to a peak of no more than 30-40 points. Today, the European Union and the United States are scheduled to publish the speeches of Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell. In my opinion, more attention will be focused on the Fed Chairman's speech, since yesterday's inflation report caused a lot of noise in the markets. As the consumer price index rose strongly at the end of March, the markets will be eager once again for a response from Powell regarding the possible actions of the Fed to curb inflation in the future. Earlier, Powell repeatedly commented on the Fed's possible actions, but all of them were aimed at extending the terms of stimulating the economy as long as possible. And regarding the possible acceleration of inflation, he said last year that the Fed would no longer be tied to the 2.0% level and would allow it to go higher to compensate for periods when it was below this mark. However, the markets are very worried about the fact that inflation can accelerate rapidly, so they will wait for clarification from Powell.
Based on my analysis, the formation of a new upward wave is highly likely. As expected, the instrument increased to the level of 1.1978, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through it may lead to the beginning of a correctional wave 2 or b. Therefore, for new purchases, it is suggested to wait for its construction to be over. If the attempt to break through the level of 1.1978 is successful, then wave 1 or a will take an extended form.
The wave pattern of the upward trend section is still quite complete. In this case, the five-wave form is not going to get complicated yet. However, the section of the trend, which started to form immediately after it, takes on a corrective, but quite understandable form. This section of the trend also looks almost done.
