EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair continued to fall during the last trading day, which began after rebounding from the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1989). Thus, the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1922). Closing the pair's rate above the level of 100.0% will work in favor of resuming the growth of quotes in the direction of the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.2067). Meanwhile, the activity of traders has declined very much in recent days. The US currency is growing slightly, however, this growth is very weak and takes place within the framework of a clear upward trend. The information background supports the dollar from time to time, however, bear traders at this time do not seem to be too eager to conduct active trading. The US retail trade report for March was very strong. The indicator rose by 9.8% m/m, although traders expected no more than 5.8% m/m. The number of applications for unemployment benefits also turned out to be quite strong: for the next week, only 576,000, although the week before the value was 769,000. Only industrial production slightly deflated and amounted to only 1.4% instead of the expected 2.7%. Thus, the statistics were in favor of the dollar, however, it was not possible to extract any special dividends for the US currency. The euro continues to grow even though the US economy is recovering at a much faster pace than the European one, as confirmed this week by Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde. Therefore, there is even some discrepancy. Also in the European Union, the situation with the coronavirus and vaccination of the population remains tense. Things are much quieter in America. Thus, I can conclude that traders mostly ignore the information background now.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the bearish divergence of the MACD indicator allowed the pair to start the process of falling. However, in the coming days, a bullish divergence may form in the CCI indicator, which may allow the pair to resume the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822). Thus, the further fall of the pair is canceled for the time being, and instead, it can continue to grow in the direction of the Fibo level of 323.6% (1.2080). The rebound of quotes from the trend line will allow us to count on a new reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the level of 261.8%.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 15, the calendar of economic events in the European Union was empty, and in the United States, several reports were released that did not help the dollar.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - consumer price index (09:00 UTC).
US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (14:00 UTC).
On April 16, the European Union will release a fairly important inflation report, and in the United States – almost nothing. Thus, the information background will be present only in the morning.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be quite neutral this time. During the reporting week, Non-commercial traders closed 7,679 long contracts and 6,702 short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators for the reporting week almost did not change. In total, in recent weeks, speculators have been getting rid of long contracts more and at the same time increasing short contracts. Thus, in general, their mood becomes more "bearish". Consequently, the COT reports allow us to conclude the possible continuation of the fall in quotes, however, the total number of long contracts focused on the hands of large players remains higher than the total number of short contracts. That is, the upward trend is not yet complete.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair if there is a rebound from the level of 161.8% (1.2027) on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.1922 and 1.1881. Purchases of the pair were recommended with a target of 1.1989 at the close above the level of 76.4% (1.1922) on the hourly chart. This goal has been achieved. Now you can buy at a close above 1.1989 with targets of 1.2027 and 1.2067.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
