Over the past weekend, the bitcoin exchange rate fell by $15,000. However, the crypto community is in no hurry to bury the "digital gold". Now it is still very easy to find crypto enthusiasts who believe that bitcoin will grow to both $100,000 and $500,000. However, it is just as easy to find crypto skeptics who continue to insist that bitcoin will sooner or later collapse completely. Our task is to try to determine the moment when bitcoin can begin to fall. The drop in quotes last weekend by $15,000 may well be the beginning of a powerful fall. To understand what's what, one should take into account a huge number of fundamental factors and news, as well as various kinds of messages. But even if you are a guru of fundamental analysis, it is still impossible to consider all the factors.
No one can ever predict at what point whales will start selling their coins, or whether they will start to do so at all. It is no secret that, as in the rest of the world, a very small number of accounts hold a significant amount of coins. In the case of bitcoin, some studies show that up to 90% of coins are concentrated in 2% of accounts. Perhaps, in reality, not everything is so terrible, but the truth is somewhere nearby. Now imagine if at least 10% of those 2% start selling bitcoin for any reason. If the sale of 10,000 coins results in a 1-2% change in value, then what happens if 100,000 coins are sold? We are only talking about the fact that it is impossible to predict when a collapse will occur. One can only assume that it will happen. And we believe that this time is not far off.
Take a look at the illustration above. This is the timetable for the movement of the bitcoin in 2013-2014. Strong growth (within 7 weeks the quotes rose 9 times), then a slow but strong fall (-80% of the value over the next 57 weeks).
Here is a chart of the bitcoin movement in 2017-2018. The same thing happened. Strong growth (within 32 weeks, bitcoin grew 13 times), after which a rather slow decline, but at the same time strong (-80% of the value over the next 52 weeks).
And here is what is happening now on the market. Strong and sharp growth (over the past 24 weeks, bitcoin has grown 6 times). Doesn't it look like anything? Pictures, if not identical, then very, very similar. Thus, we do not believe that bitcoin will crash down right now, but the likelihood of this is high. The growth of bitcoin is already too strong and abrupt. Not a single asset in the world can constantly move upwards at such a speed. It should also be noted that the "bitcoin crash" is a very unpopular topic on the internet and in the media. Readers, traders, and investors want to see news with the headline "Bitcoin will be worth $100,000", not "Bitcoin will fall soon." Thus, less news that predicts the collapse of bitcoin does not exactly mean that the probability of its fall is 80% less than the likelihood of further growth.
