On the H4 chart, the wave pattern still does not require any clarifications or additions. Thus, it can be concluded that the instrument is now in the process of building a new section of the upward trend. The first wave of this section is supposedly done. Earlier, we set the targets around the 21st mark for this first wave, but an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level suggests that the market is ready to build a wave 2 or b. In any case, a correction wave must be built; without it, the upward section of the trend will not develop. Thus, if a correction wave begins to form, then its targets will be located around the 19th figure and it will be possible to consider new purchases of the instrument after this wave is finished. If a simple pullback takes place, then a successful attempt to break through the 38.2% level will signal the readiness of the markets to buy the European currency.
The news background for the EUR/USD pair on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday was not just weak, it was absent. However, it cannot be said that the markets stood still all this time and waited for any events and news. The trading continued, meeting the expectations. Thus, the markets showed that they are ready to trade without any news background at all. But still, other markets, for example, the stock market, could have a certain influence on the movement of the instrument this week, or such an indicator as the yield on US government securities. However, these factors are not considered to be causing the formation of the trend.
Today, the markets will finally be able to witness important events, although only at first glance. The ECB meeting is always interesting, but the European regulator is unlikely to make any important decisions during this meeting. At the last meeting in March, it was decided to accelerate the purchase of bonds from the open market to counteract the growth of European bond yields. However, the timing of the PEPP program and its overall scope remained unchanged. Christine Lagarde then said that investors will not be able to "blackmail the ECB", hinting at their purposeful activities aimed at increasing the yield of Eurobonds. Now, there are no prerequisites for the ECB to change the parameters of monetary policy in any way. Thus, no changes will most likely follow, and the most interesting event of the day will be the ECB press conference.
Based on the analysis, the formation of an upward trend is still expected. Since its first wave is already almost done, and the attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level was unsuccessful, the construction of the second wave could begin now. If this is true, then it is not suggested to immediately open new purchases. It is better to wait for this wave to complete its formation. The internal wave structure of wave 1 or a is not obvious, but the five waves inside it are not visible at this time.
The wave pattern of the upward trend section is still quite complete, so the five-wave form will not get complex yet. However, the section of the trend, which started to form immediately after it, takes on a corrective, but quite understandable form. This part of the trend is also almost done.
