EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair fell almost to the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1989) yesterday, where it turned in favor of the European currency and resumed growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.2067). Yesterday, the information background was again "at zero". Nothing interesting happened in America or the European Union. Today, traders are already focused on summing up the results of the European Central Bank meeting. Perhaps simply because it is the only event of the day that deserves attention. Many analysts have already agreed that the meeting will be passable. The rates are unlikely to be changed. The scope and timing of the PEPP program are also unlikely to change. Therefore, traders will only be interested in the information that comes directly from Christine Lagarde during the press conference. Let me remind you that the recent statements of the ECB chairman were very pessimistic. Lagarde compared the European economy to a patient who can only stand with two crutches. So it's unlikely that her rhetoric has changed in the past week or so. Therefore, I expect her to continue the same "dovish" rhetoric in the style of "the European economy still needs incentives, and the coronavirus still poses significant risks to the recovery". Thus, if traders generally consider such sayings worthy of attention, then the euro currency will come under pressure today with a high degree of probability. However, the bad information background for the euro does not create a big problem for bull traders. Because the European currency has been growing steadily in recent weeks, and yesterday I suggested that the global 12-year trend is now changing to an upward one.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator allowed the pair to resume the growth process and close above the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). An upward trend line was also formed, which also increases the probability of continuing growth in the direction of 1.2223. Fixing the pair's rate under the trend line will favor the US currency, and some fall in the direction of 1.1836.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair quotes came close to the corrective level of 323.6% (1.2080) and the descending trend line. If there is a rebound, this will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 261.8% (1.1822). Closing quotes above the trend line will significantly increase the probability of the pair continuing to grow in the direction of the level of 1.2496.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 21, the calendar of economic events in the European Union and the United States was empty. Thus, the information background did not have any impact on traders.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - publication of the ECB's decision on the main interest rate (11:45 UTC).
EU - ECB press conference (12:30 UTC).
US - number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
On April 22, the European Union will summarize the results of the ECB meeting, and in the United States - report on applications for unemployment benefits. However, after three days of emptiness in the calendar, there will be an informational background today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be relatively neutral. During the reporting week, Non-commercial traders opened 2,260 long contracts and closed 2,258 short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators became again a little more bullish. Given that the pair are growing on the two youngest charts, everything is logical. Moreover, in general, speculators also remain bullish, as the number of long contracts focused on their hands still exceeds the number of short contracts. Not as much as before, but still exceeds.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair if it closes below the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.1989 and 1.1836. Purchases of the pair were recommended when closing above the level of 1.1989 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2027 and 1.2067. Both goals have been achieved. Now I recommend buying the pair when closing above the trend line on the daily chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
