Since May 13, the British pound (GBP/USD) has developed a strong upward movement from the low of 1.2154 and reached the high of 1.2599 during the American session on Monday. A recovery of almost 450 pips means that the pound is reaching an overbought zone, and a technical correction is likely in the coming days.
On Wednesday, the FOMC will publish the minutes for May, in which the Fed decided to raise its interest rate by 0.50%. If the minutes reveal that the Fed is determined to raise interest rates above 0.50%, this could be seen as a positive sign for the US dollar, which in turn would cause the GBP/USD to fall.
The short-term GBP/USD bullish trend looks like a selling opportunity because a strong resistance zone is seen at 1.2630 -1.2695.
The risk appetite since the opening of the Asian session does not allow the dollar to find demand, which is a boost for GBP/USD. The US dollar index (USDX) has reached strong support at the 200 EMA around 102.24. In case of a break, it could favor the British pound and push the price towards 1.2630 and 1.2695.
The Eagle Indicator reached the 95-point zone which represents extreme oversold conditions. An imminent correction of the British pound is likely to happen in the coming hours and could reach the bottom of the ascending channel around 1.2500, or even the 21 SMA at 1.2456.
In case the technical correction reaches the 21 SMA around 1.2456, it will be an opportunity to buy the pound on a technical rebound, with the targets at 1.2570, 1.2630 (200 EMA), and 1.2695 (4/8 Murray).
In the next few hours, attention should be given to the development of the US dollar index. If it recovers, this could be a signal to sell the pound. In case it breaks through the 200 EMA, it will be a signal to continue buying the pair. The areas of 1.2630 and 1.2695 could serve as resistance levels.
A pullback towards 1.2630 will be a clear signal to sell. The Eagle Indicator supports our bearish strategy as it is showing signs of exhaustion and an overbought status.
