GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes fell to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.3839) but have not yet been able to close below it. The rebound of quotes from this level allows us to count on a reversal in favor of the British dollar and some growth in the direction of the levels of 1.3879 and 1.3928. Fixing the pair's rate below the level of 50.0% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the levels of 1.3798 and 1.3749. The British dollar also continued to fall yesterday, as did the euro. Although if the euro had specific reasons for this, the pound had no such reasons. Until recently, this currency was growing, and now it is falling at the same rate. And I can't say that it's all about the economic reports. This week there were several essential publications in the UK, but most of them had no impact on traders.
Yesterday, the balance of industrial orders was released in Britain according to the Confederation of British Industrialists. It recorded a deterioration to -8, which means an overall drop in orders in the UK industry. Also released is not the most important indicator of consumer confidence, which also turned out to be negative -15, reflecting the pessimism of British residents. It is unlikely that these reports had any impact on the pound/dollar pair, but in general, the situation in the UK remains quite difficult and unfavorable. The questions about the referendum in Scotland and the clashes and riots in Northern Ireland are becoming more acute. Thus, I would say that there is much more reason for the fall of the British dollar than for the growth. However, over the past week, the British dollar showed growth, which may mean that traders do not want to pay attention to economic and other news.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair fell slightly below the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870), which allows us to count on a further fall. Still, the resulting bullish divergence in the CCI indicator will enable us to expect a reversal in favor of the British dollar and a resumption of growth in the direction of the level of 1.4003.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.4084), and the ascending trend line received a new point, through which it now passes. The new closing of quotes under the trend line will again allow us to count on a strong drop in the British dollar.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, the US economic news calendar contained only the most critical report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. In the UK – nothing was interesting at all.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - changes in retail trade volume with and without fuel costs (06:00 UTC).
UK - manufacturing PMI (08:30 UTC).
UK - PMI index for the service sector (08:30 UTC).
US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (13:45 UTC).
US - PMI index for the service sector (13:45 UTC).
US - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will deliver a speech (14:35 UTC).
On Friday, both the UK and the US will release data on business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, and in the UK – also a report on retail sales. Thus, the information background will be present today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report of April 13 on the Briton was very eloquent. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened as many as 7,227 new long contracts, which is a lot for the pound. Speculators also opened 930 short contracts. Thus, the mood of the most important category of traders has sharply become more bullish. The number of long contracts in the "Non-commercial" category again exceeds twice the number of short contracts. This means that, in general, the bullish mood among speculators remains, and the pound can continue to grow. That's what he's been doing in the last few days.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend buying the British dollar with a target of 1.4084 if there is a rebound from the trend line on the daily chart. I recommend selling the pound sterling if it is closed under the trend line on the daily chart with a target of 1.3513.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
